TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatial modelling of the between-herd infection dynamics of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in dairy herds in Denmark
AU - Ersbøll, Annette Kjær
AU - Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær
AU - Houe, Hans
AU - Alban, L.
AU - Kjeldsen, A.M.
PY - 2010/11/1
Y1 - 2010/11/1
N2 - According to the current literature BVDV-infected neighbours probably impose a high risk of infection of susceptible cattle herds. In the present study, the objective was to evaluate the risk of a dairy herd changing infection status (from not having persistently infected (PI) animals to having PI-animals) in relation to location and infection status of neighbouring cattle herds in Denmark. In total, 7921 dairy herds were included in the analysis of spatial and non-spatial risk factors. The spatial risk factors were derived based on the cattle herds in the neighbourhood (N= 36,639 cattle herds). The neighbourhood was defined as the first order neighbouring cattle herds using a Delauney triangularization. In total, 13.3% of the dairy herds changed herd status to PI-herds during the study period that lasted from January 1, 1995, to June 30, 1996. The risk of becoming a PI-herd was negatively associated with the mean distance to the neighbouring herds (OR = 0.7 for an increase of 1. km). Presence of PI-herds in the neighbourhood increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 1.37, 1.40, 1.70 for 1, 2, ≥3 PI-herds in the neighbourhood). Increasing herd size increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 3.9 for an increase of 10 cows). Regional differences were seen.
AB - According to the current literature BVDV-infected neighbours probably impose a high risk of infection of susceptible cattle herds. In the present study, the objective was to evaluate the risk of a dairy herd changing infection status (from not having persistently infected (PI) animals to having PI-animals) in relation to location and infection status of neighbouring cattle herds in Denmark. In total, 7921 dairy herds were included in the analysis of spatial and non-spatial risk factors. The spatial risk factors were derived based on the cattle herds in the neighbourhood (N= 36,639 cattle herds). The neighbourhood was defined as the first order neighbouring cattle herds using a Delauney triangularization. In total, 13.3% of the dairy herds changed herd status to PI-herds during the study period that lasted from January 1, 1995, to June 30, 1996. The risk of becoming a PI-herd was negatively associated with the mean distance to the neighbouring herds (OR = 0.7 for an increase of 1. km). Presence of PI-herds in the neighbourhood increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 1.37, 1.40, 1.70 for 1, 2, ≥3 PI-herds in the neighbourhood). Increasing herd size increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 3.9 for an increase of 10 cows). Regional differences were seen.
U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.08.004
DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.08.004
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 20850882
SN - 0167-5877
VL - 97
SP - 83
EP - 89
JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
IS - 2
ER -
