Spatial modelling of the between-herd infection dynamics of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in dairy herds in Denmark

TY - JOUR

T1 - Spatial modelling of the between-herd infection dynamics of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) in dairy herds in Denmark

AU - Ersbøll, Annette Kjær

AU - Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

AU - Houe, Hans

AU - Alban, L.

AU - Kjeldsen, A.M.

PY - 2010/11/1

Y1 - 2010/11/1

N2 - According to the current literature BVDV-infected neighbours probably impose a high risk of infection of susceptible cattle herds. In the present study, the objective was to evaluate the risk of a dairy herd changing infection status (from not having persistently infected (PI) animals to having PI-animals) in relation to location and infection status of neighbouring cattle herds in Denmark. In total, 7921 dairy herds were included in the analysis of spatial and non-spatial risk factors. The spatial risk factors were derived based on the cattle herds in the neighbourhood (N= 36,639 cattle herds). The neighbourhood was defined as the first order neighbouring cattle herds using a Delauney triangularization. In total, 13.3% of the dairy herds changed herd status to PI-herds during the study period that lasted from January 1, 1995, to June 30, 1996. The risk of becoming a PI-herd was negatively associated with the mean distance to the neighbouring herds (OR = 0.7 for an increase of 1. km). Presence of PI-herds in the neighbourhood increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 1.37, 1.40, 1.70 for 1, 2, ≥3 PI-herds in the neighbourhood). Increasing herd size increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 3.9 for an increase of 10 cows). Regional differences were seen.

AB - According to the current literature BVDV-infected neighbours probably impose a high risk of infection of susceptible cattle herds. In the present study, the objective was to evaluate the risk of a dairy herd changing infection status (from not having persistently infected (PI) animals to having PI-animals) in relation to location and infection status of neighbouring cattle herds in Denmark. In total, 7921 dairy herds were included in the analysis of spatial and non-spatial risk factors. The spatial risk factors were derived based on the cattle herds in the neighbourhood (N= 36,639 cattle herds). The neighbourhood was defined as the first order neighbouring cattle herds using a Delauney triangularization. In total, 13.3% of the dairy herds changed herd status to PI-herds during the study period that lasted from January 1, 1995, to June 30, 1996. The risk of becoming a PI-herd was negatively associated with the mean distance to the neighbouring herds (OR = 0.7 for an increase of 1. km). Presence of PI-herds in the neighbourhood increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 1.37, 1.40, 1.70 for 1, 2, ≥3 PI-herds in the neighbourhood). Increasing herd size increased the risk of becoming a PI-herd (OR = 3.9 for an increase of 10 cows). Regional differences were seen.

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.08.004

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.08.004

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 20850882

SN - 0167-5877

VL - 97

SP - 83

EP - 89

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

IS - 2

ER -