Risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis after an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems: A nationwide prospective cohort study

TY - JOUR

T1 - Risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis after an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems

T2 - A nationwide prospective cohort study

AU - Askgaard, Gro

AU - Leon, David A

AU - Kjaer, Mette S

AU - Deleuran, Thomas

AU - Gerds, Thomas A

AU - Tolstrup, Janne S

N1 - © 2016 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

PY - 2017/3/1

Y1 - 2017/3/1

N2 - Alcoholic liver cirrhosis is usually preceded by many years of heavy drinking, in which cessation in drinking could prevent the disease. Alcohol problems are not consistently managed in hospital patients. We followed all Danish patients with an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems (intoxication, harmful use, or dependence) during 1998-2002 for alcoholic liver cirrhosis development (n = 36,044). In this registry-based cohort, we identified predictors of the absolute risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated as the incidence rate of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in these patients relative to the general population. Age and alcohol diagnosis were significant predictors of alcoholic liver cirrhosis risk in men and women, whereas civil status, education, and type of hospital care were not. In men, the 15-year absolute risk was 0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4, 0.8) for 20-29 years, 5.5% (95% CI, 4.9, 6.2) for 30-39 years, 9.8% (95% CI, 9.0, 11) for 40-49 years, 8.9% (95% CI, 8.1, 9.8) for 50-59 years, 6.2% (95% CI, 5.1, 7.2) for 60-69 years, and 2.5% (95% CI, 1.7, 3.3) for 70-84 years. According to alcohol diagnosis in men, the 15-year absolute risk was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.3, 2.9) for intoxication, 7.7% (95% CI, 6.4, 7.9) for harmful use, and 8.8% (95% CI, 8.2, 9.4) for dependence. The IRR for alcoholic liver cirrhosis in the cohort relative to the general population was 11 (95% CI, 10, 12) in men and 18 (95% CI, 15, 21) in women.CONCLUSION: Hospital patients with alcohol problems had a much greater risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis compared to the general population. The risk was particularly increased for patients 40-59 years and for patients diagnosed with harmful use or dependence. (Hepatology 2017;65:929-937).

AB - Alcoholic liver cirrhosis is usually preceded by many years of heavy drinking, in which cessation in drinking could prevent the disease. Alcohol problems are not consistently managed in hospital patients. We followed all Danish patients with an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems (intoxication, harmful use, or dependence) during 1998-2002 for alcoholic liver cirrhosis development (n = 36,044). In this registry-based cohort, we identified predictors of the absolute risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated as the incidence rate of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in these patients relative to the general population. Age and alcohol diagnosis were significant predictors of alcoholic liver cirrhosis risk in men and women, whereas civil status, education, and type of hospital care were not. In men, the 15-year absolute risk was 0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4, 0.8) for 20-29 years, 5.5% (95% CI, 4.9, 6.2) for 30-39 years, 9.8% (95% CI, 9.0, 11) for 40-49 years, 8.9% (95% CI, 8.1, 9.8) for 50-59 years, 6.2% (95% CI, 5.1, 7.2) for 60-69 years, and 2.5% (95% CI, 1.7, 3.3) for 70-84 years. According to alcohol diagnosis in men, the 15-year absolute risk was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.3, 2.9) for intoxication, 7.7% (95% CI, 6.4, 7.9) for harmful use, and 8.8% (95% CI, 8.2, 9.4) for dependence. The IRR for alcoholic liver cirrhosis in the cohort relative to the general population was 11 (95% CI, 10, 12) in men and 18 (95% CI, 15, 21) in women.CONCLUSION: Hospital patients with alcohol problems had a much greater risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis compared to the general population. The risk was particularly increased for patients 40-59 years and for patients diagnosed with harmful use or dependence. (Hepatology 2017;65:929-937).

KW - Adult

KW - Age Distribution

KW - Age of Onset

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Alcohol Drinking/adverse effects

KW - Alcoholism/diagnosis

KW - Cohort Studies

KW - Confidence Intervals

KW - Denmark/epidemiology

KW - Female

KW - Follow-Up Studies

KW - Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data

KW - Humans

KW - Incidence

KW - Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic/epidemiology

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Predictive Value of Tests

KW - Prospective Studies

KW - Registries

KW - Risk Assessment

KW - Sex Distribution

KW - Young Adult

U2 - 10.1002/hep.28943

DO - 10.1002/hep.28943

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 27862159

SN - 0270-9139

VL - 65

SP - 929

EP - 937

JO - Hepatology

JF - Hepatology

IS - 3

ER -