TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis after an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems
T2 - A nationwide prospective cohort study
AU - Askgaard, Gro
AU - Leon, David A
AU - Kjaer, Mette S
AU - Deleuran, Thomas
AU - Gerds, Thomas A
AU - Tolstrup, Janne S
N1 - © 2016 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.
PY - 2017/3/1
Y1 - 2017/3/1
N2 - Alcoholic liver cirrhosis is usually preceded by many years of heavy drinking, in which cessation in drinking could prevent the disease. Alcohol problems are not consistently managed in hospital patients. We followed all Danish patients with an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems (intoxication, harmful use, or dependence) during 1998-2002 for alcoholic liver cirrhosis development (n = 36,044). In this registry-based cohort, we identified predictors of the absolute risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated as the incidence rate of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in these patients relative to the general population. Age and alcohol diagnosis were significant predictors of alcoholic liver cirrhosis risk in men and women, whereas civil status, education, and type of hospital care were not. In men, the 15-year absolute risk was 0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4, 0.8) for 20-29 years, 5.5% (95% CI, 4.9, 6.2) for 30-39 years, 9.8% (95% CI, 9.0, 11) for 40-49 years, 8.9% (95% CI, 8.1, 9.8) for 50-59 years, 6.2% (95% CI, 5.1, 7.2) for 60-69 years, and 2.5% (95% CI, 1.7, 3.3) for 70-84 years. According to alcohol diagnosis in men, the 15-year absolute risk was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.3, 2.9) for intoxication, 7.7% (95% CI, 6.4, 7.9) for harmful use, and 8.8% (95% CI, 8.2, 9.4) for dependence. The IRR for alcoholic liver cirrhosis in the cohort relative to the general population was 11 (95% CI, 10, 12) in men and 18 (95% CI, 15, 21) in women.CONCLUSION: Hospital patients with alcohol problems had a much greater risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis compared to the general population. The risk was particularly increased for patients 40-59 years and for patients diagnosed with harmful use or dependence. (Hepatology 2017;65:929-937).
AB - Alcoholic liver cirrhosis is usually preceded by many years of heavy drinking, in which cessation in drinking could prevent the disease. Alcohol problems are not consistently managed in hospital patients. We followed all Danish patients with an initial hospital contact with alcohol problems (intoxication, harmful use, or dependence) during 1998-2002 for alcoholic liver cirrhosis development (n = 36,044). In this registry-based cohort, we identified predictors of the absolute risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated as the incidence rate of alcoholic liver cirrhosis in these patients relative to the general population. Age and alcohol diagnosis were significant predictors of alcoholic liver cirrhosis risk in men and women, whereas civil status, education, and type of hospital care were not. In men, the 15-year absolute risk was 0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4, 0.8) for 20-29 years, 5.5% (95% CI, 4.9, 6.2) for 30-39 years, 9.8% (95% CI, 9.0, 11) for 40-49 years, 8.9% (95% CI, 8.1, 9.8) for 50-59 years, 6.2% (95% CI, 5.1, 7.2) for 60-69 years, and 2.5% (95% CI, 1.7, 3.3) for 70-84 years. According to alcohol diagnosis in men, the 15-year absolute risk was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.3, 2.9) for intoxication, 7.7% (95% CI, 6.4, 7.9) for harmful use, and 8.8% (95% CI, 8.2, 9.4) for dependence. The IRR for alcoholic liver cirrhosis in the cohort relative to the general population was 11 (95% CI, 10, 12) in men and 18 (95% CI, 15, 21) in women.CONCLUSION: Hospital patients with alcohol problems had a much greater risk for alcoholic liver cirrhosis compared to the general population. The risk was particularly increased for patients 40-59 years and for patients diagnosed with harmful use or dependence. (Hepatology 2017;65:929-937).
KW - Adult
KW - Age Distribution
KW - Age of Onset
KW - Aged
KW - Aged, 80 and over
KW - Alcohol Drinking/adverse effects
KW - Alcoholism/diagnosis
KW - Cohort Studies
KW - Confidence Intervals
KW - Denmark/epidemiology
KW - Female
KW - Follow-Up Studies
KW - Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data
KW - Humans
KW - Incidence
KW - Liver Cirrhosis, Alcoholic/epidemiology
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Predictive Value of Tests
KW - Prospective Studies
KW - Registries
KW - Risk Assessment
KW - Sex Distribution
KW - Young Adult
U2 - 10.1002/hep.28943
DO - 10.1002/hep.28943
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 27862159
SN - 0270-9139
VL - 65
SP - 929
EP - 937
JO - Hepatology
JF - Hepatology
IS - 3
ER -
