Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

M. Vázquez-Prada; A. Pacheco; Á. González; J.B. Gómez; Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet

Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

M. Vázquez-Prada, A. Pacheco, Á. González, J.B. Gómez, Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet

Department of Public Health

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

Original language	English
Journal	Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Volume	10
Issue number	6
Pages (from-to)	565-571
Number of pages	7
ISSN	1023-5809
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2003

Cite this

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AU - Pacheco, A.

AU - González, Á.

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AU - Vazquez-Prada Baillet, Miguel

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AB - Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

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Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

Abstract

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