Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

M. Vázquez-Prada; A. Pacheco; Á. González; J.B. Gómez; Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet

Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

M. Vázquez-Prada, A. Pacheco, Á. González, J.B. Gómez, Miguel Vazquez-Prada Baillet

Institut for Folkesundhedsvidenskab

12 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Vol/bind	10
Udgave nummer	6
Sider (fra-til)	565-571
Antal sider	7
ISSN	1023-5809
Status	Udgivet - 1 nov. 2003

Andre filer og links

Link to publication in Scopus

Citationsformater

@article{a647f43c52d24bdeadfc3b5ba1d592b2,

title = "Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model",

abstract = "Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.",

author = "M. V{\'a}zquez-Prada and A. Pacheco and {\'A}. Gonz{\'a}lez and J.B. G{\'o}mez and {Vazquez-Prada Baillet}, Miguel",

year = "2003",

month = nov,

day = "1",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

pages = "565--571",

journal = "Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics",

issn = "1023-5809",

publisher = "Copernicus GmbH",

number = "6",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

AU - Vázquez-Prada, M.

AU - Pacheco, A.

AU - González, Á.

AU - Gómez, J.B.

AU - Vazquez-Prada Baillet, Miguel

PY - 2003/11/1

Y1 - 2003/11/1

N2 - Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

AB - Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the occurence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0347542534&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:0347542534

SN - 1023-5809

VL - 10

SP - 565

EP - 571

JO - Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

JF - Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

IS - 6

ER -

Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model

Abstract

Andre filer og links

Fingeraftryk

Citationsformater