Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction

Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa; Preben Willeberg; Lasse Engbo Christiansen; Anette Boklund; M. Alkhamis; A. Perez; Claes Enøe

Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction

Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa, Preben Willeberg, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Anette Boklund, M. Alkhamis, A. Perez, Claes Enøe

Biocomplexity

Abstract

The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model.The FFI and FFS showed good correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved by supplementing the models with information on FFS and characteristics of the index-herd. Results presented here will contribute to improve preparedness of Denmark to early control of a hypothetical FMD epidemic.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Editors	K. L. P. Verheyen, C. Fourichon, SVEPM Committee
Number of pages	10
Publisher	Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Publication date	2013
Pages	13-22
Publication status	Published - 2013

Cite this

Hisham Beshara Halasa, T., Willeberg, P., Christiansen, L. E., Boklund, A., Alkhamis, M., Perez, A., & Enøe, C. (2013). Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction. In K. L. P. Verheyen, C. Fourichon, & SVEPM. Committee (Eds.), Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (pp. 13-22). Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine.

Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction. / Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Willeberg, Preben; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo et al.
Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. ed. / K. L. P. Verheyen; C. Fourichon; SVEPM Committee. Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, 2013. p. 13-22.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Book chapter › Research › peer-review

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