Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction

Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa; Preben Willeberg; Lasse Engbo Christiansen; Anette Boklund; M. Alkhamis; A. Perez; Claes Enøe

Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction

Tariq Hisham Beshara Halasa, Preben Willeberg, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Anette Boklund, M. Alkhamis, A. Perez, Claes Enøe

Biokompleksitet

Abstract

The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model.The FFI and FFS showed good correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved by supplementing the models with information on FFS and characteristics of the index-herd. Results presented here will contribute to improve preparedness of Denmark to early control of a hypothetical FMD epidemic.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Titel	Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Redaktører	K. L. P. Verheyen, C. Fourichon, SVEPM Committee
Antal sider	10
Forlag	Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Publikationsdato	2013
Sider	13-22
Status	Udgivet - 2013

Citationsformater

Hisham Beshara Halasa, T., Willeberg, P., Christiansen, L. E., Boklund, A., Alkhamis, M., Perez, A., & Enøe, C. (2013). Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction. I K. L. P. Verheyen, C. Fourichon, & SVEPM. Committee (red.), Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (s. 13-22). Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine.

Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction. / Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Willeberg, Preben; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo et al.

Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. red. / K. L. P. Verheyen; C. Fourichon; SVEPM Committee. Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, 2013. s. 13-22.

Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport › Bidrag til bog/antologi › Forskning › peer review

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abstract = "The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model.The FFI and FFS showed good correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved by supplementing the models with information on FFS and characteristics of the index-herd. Results presented here will contribute to improve preparedness of Denmark to early control of a hypothetical FMD epidemic.",

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AU - Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

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AU - Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

AU - Boklund, Anette

AU - Alkhamis, M.

AU - Perez, A.

AU - Enøe, Claes

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