Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits

Chiara Polce; Michael P. Garratt; Mette Termansen; Julian Ramirez-Villegas; Andrew J. Challinor; Martin G. Lappage; Nigel D. Boatman; Andrew Crowe; Ayenew Melese Endalew; Simon G. Potts; Kate E. Somerwill; Jacobus C. Biesmeijer

doi:10.1111/gcb.12577

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits

Chiara Polce, Michael P. Garratt, Mette Termansen, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andrew J. Challinor, Martin G. Lappage, Nigel D. Boatman, Andrew Crowe, Ayenew Melese Endalew, Simon G. Potts, Kate E. Somerwill, Jacobus C. Biesmeijer^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

Original language	English
Journal	Global Change Biology
Volume	20
Issue number	9
Pages (from-to)	2815-2828
Number of pages	14
ISSN	1354-1013
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577
Publication status	Published - Sept 2014
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Climate change
Maxent
Perennial fruit
Pollination services
Range shifts
Species distribution models

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Polce, C., Garratt, M. P., Termansen, M., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Challinor, A. J., Lappage, M. G., Boatman, N. D., Crowe, A., Endalew, A. M., Potts, S. G., Somerwill, K. E., & Biesmeijer, J. C. (2014). Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits. Global Change Biology, 20(9), 2815-2828. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577

Polce, C, Garratt, MP, Termansen, M, Ramirez-Villegas, J, Challinor, AJ, Lappage, MG, Boatman, ND, Crowe, A, Endalew, AM, Potts, SG, Somerwill, KE & Biesmeijer, JC 2014, 'Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits', Global Change Biology, vol. 20, no. 9, pp. 2815-2828. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577

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abstract = "Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.",

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author = "Chiara Polce and Garratt, {Michael P.} and Mette Termansen and Julian Ramirez-Villegas and Challinor, {Andrew J.} and Lappage, {Martin G.} and Boatman, {Nigel D.} and Andrew Crowe and Endalew, {Ayenew Melese} and Potts, {Simon G.} and Somerwill, {Kate E.} and Biesmeijer, {Jacobus C.}",

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AU - Polce, Chiara

AU - Garratt, Michael P.

AU - Termansen, Mette

AU - Ramirez-Villegas, Julian

AU - Challinor, Andrew J.

AU - Lappage, Martin G.

AU - Boatman, Nigel D.

AU - Crowe, Andrew

AU - Endalew, Ayenew Melese

AU - Potts, Simon G.

AU - Somerwill, Kate E.

AU - Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.

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N2 - Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

AB - Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

KW - Climate change

KW - Maxent

KW - Perennial fruit

KW - Pollination services

KW - Range shifts

KW - Species distribution models

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JO - Global Change Biology

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Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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