Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits

Chiara Polce; Michael P. Garratt; Mette Termansen; Julian Ramirez-Villegas; Andrew J. Challinor; Martin G. Lappage; Nigel D. Boatman; Andrew Crowe; Ayenew Melese Endalew; Simon G. Potts; Kate E. Somerwill; Jacobus C. Biesmeijer

doi:10.1111/gcb.12577

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits

Chiara Polce, Michael P. Garratt, Mette Termansen, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andrew J. Challinor, Martin G. Lappage, Nigel D. Boatman, Andrew Crowe, Ayenew Melese Endalew, Simon G. Potts, Kate E. Somerwill, Jacobus C. Biesmeijer^*

^*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

36 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Global Change Biology
Vol/bind	20
Udgave nummer	9
Sider (fra-til)	2815-2828
Antal sider	14
ISSN	1354-1013
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577
Status	Udgivet - sep. 2014
Udgivet eksternt	Ja

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10.1111/gcb.12577Licens: CC BY

gcb.12577Forlagets udgivne version, 882 KBLicens: CC BY

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Polce, C., Garratt, M. P., Termansen, M., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Challinor, A. J., Lappage, M. G., Boatman, N. D., Crowe, A., Endalew, A. M., Potts, S. G., Somerwill, K. E., & Biesmeijer, J. C. (2014). Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits. Global Change Biology, 20(9), 2815-2828. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577

Polce, C, Garratt, MP, Termansen, M, Ramirez-Villegas, J, Challinor, AJ, Lappage, MG, Boatman, ND, Crowe, A, Endalew, AM, Potts, SG, Somerwill, KE & Biesmeijer, JC 2014, 'Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits', Global Change Biology, bind 20, nr. 9, s. 2815-2828. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12577

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title = "Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits",

abstract = "Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.",

keywords = "Climate change, Maxent, Perennial fruit, Pollination services, Range shifts, Species distribution models",

author = "Chiara Polce and Garratt, {Michael P.} and Mette Termansen and Julian Ramirez-Villegas and Challinor, {Andrew J.} and Lappage, {Martin G.} and Boatman, {Nigel D.} and Andrew Crowe and Endalew, {Ayenew Melese} and Potts, {Simon G.} and Somerwill, {Kate E.} and Biesmeijer, {Jacobus C.}",

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T1 - Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators

T2 - Increased risks of pollination deficits

AU - Polce, Chiara

AU - Garratt, Michael P.

AU - Termansen, Mette

AU - Ramirez-Villegas, Julian

AU - Challinor, Andrew J.

AU - Lappage, Martin G.

AU - Boatman, Nigel D.

AU - Crowe, Andrew

AU - Endalew, Ayenew Melese

AU - Potts, Simon G.

AU - Somerwill, Kate E.

AU - Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.

PY - 2014/9

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N2 - Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

AB - Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

KW - Climate change

KW - Maxent

KW - Perennial fruit

KW - Pollination services

KW - Range shifts

KW - Species distribution models

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JO - Global Change Biology

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Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: Increased risks of pollination deficits

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