The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa

TY - JOUR

T1 - The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa

AU - Kahsay, Goytom Abraha

AU - Hansen, Lars Gårn

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. Our simulation also demonstrates substantial potential for economic benefits from mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting on the same scale as the potential loss from predicted climate change.

AB - We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. Our simulation also demonstrates substantial potential for economic benefits from mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting on the same scale as the potential loss from predicted climate change.

KW - Adaptation policy

KW - Agricultural production

KW - Climate change

KW - Eastern Africa

U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.016

DO - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.016

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84948845771

SN - 0921-8009

VL - 121

SP - 54

EP - 64

JO - Ecological Economics

JF - Ecological Economics

ER -