The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in eastern Africa

TY - UNPB

T1 - The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in eastern Africa

AU - Kahsay, Goytom Abraha

AU - Hansen, Lars Gårn

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds the potential loss from predicted climate change.

AB - We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds the potential loss from predicted climate change.

M3 - Working paper

T3 - IFRO Working Paper

BT - The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in eastern Africa

PB - Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen

CY - Frederiksberg

ER -