Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

T. W. Crowther; K. E. O. Todd-Brown; C. W. Rowe; W. R. Wieder; J. C. Carey; M. B. Machmuller; B. L. Snoek; S. Fang; G. Zhou; S. D. Allison; J. M. Blair; S. D. Bridgham; A. J. Burton; Y. Carrillo; P. B. Reich; J. S. Clark; Aimee Taylor Classen; F. A. Dijkstra; Bo Elberling; B. A. Emmett; M. Estiarte; S. D. Frey; J. Guo; J. Harte; L. Jiang; B. R. Johnson; G. Kröel-dulay; Klaus Steenberg Larsen; H. Laudon; J. M. Lavallee; Y. Luo; M. Lupascu; L. N. Ma; S. Marhan; Anders Michelsen; J. Mohan; S. Niu; E. Pendall; J. Peñuelas; L. Pfeifer-Meister; C. Poll; S. Reinsch; L. L. Reynolds; Inger Kappel Schmidt; S. Sistla; N. W. Sokol; P. H. Templer; K. K. Treseder; J. M. Welker; M. A. Bradford

doi:10.1038/nature20150

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

T. W. Crowther, K. E. O. Todd-Brown, C. W. Rowe, W. R. Wieder, J. C. Carey, M. B. Machmuller, B. L. Snoek, S. Fang, G. Zhou, S. D. Allison, J. M. Blair, S. D. Bridgham, A. J. Burton, Y. Carrillo, P. B. Reich, J. S. Clark, Aimee Taylor Classen, F. A. Dijkstra, Bo Elberling, B. A. EmmettM. Estiarte, S. D. Frey, J. Guo, J. Harte, L. Jiang, B. R. Johnson, G. Kröel-dulay, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, H. Laudon, J. M. Lavallee, Y. Luo, M. Lupascu, L. N. Ma, S. Marhan, Anders Michelsen, J. Mohan, S. Niu, E. Pendall, J. Peñuelas, L. Pfeifer-Meister, C. Poll, S. Reinsch, L. L. Reynolds, Inger Kappel Schmidt, S. Sistla, N. W. Sokol, P. H. Templer, K. K. Treseder, J. M. Welker, M. A. Bradford

426 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Nature
Vol/bind	540
Udgave nummer	7631
Sider (fra-til)	104-108
Antal sider	5
ISSN	0028-0836
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20150
Status	Udgivet - 30 nov. 2016

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Crowther, T. W., Todd-Brown, K. E. O., Rowe, C. W., Wieder, W. R., Carey, J. C., Machmuller, M. B., Snoek, B. L., Fang, S., Zhou, G., Allison, S. D., Blair, J. M., Bridgham, S. D., Burton, A. J., Carrillo, Y., Reich, P. B., Clark, J. S., Classen, A. T., Dijkstra, F. A., Elberling, B., ... Bradford, M. A. (2016). Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming. Nature, 540(7631), 104-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20150

Crowther, TW, Todd-Brown, KEO, Rowe, CW, Wieder, WR, Carey, JC, Machmuller, MB, Snoek, BL, Fang, S, Zhou, G, Allison, SD, Blair, JM, Bridgham, SD, Burton, AJ, Carrillo, Y, Reich, PB, Clark, JS, Classen, AT, Dijkstra, FA, Elberling, B, Emmett, BA, Estiarte, M, Frey, SD, Guo, J, Harte, J, Jiang, L, Johnson, BR, Kröel-dulay, G, Larsen, KS, Laudon, H, Lavallee, JM, Luo, Y, Lupascu, M, Ma, LN, Marhan, S, Michelsen, A, Mohan, J, Niu, S, Pendall, E, Peñuelas, J, Pfeifer-Meister, L, Poll, C, Reinsch, S, Reynolds, LL, Schmidt, IK, Sistla, S, Sokol, NW, Templer, PH, Treseder, KK, Welker, JM & Bradford, MA 2016, 'Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming', Nature, bind 540, nr. 7631, s. 104-108. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature20150

@article{0e6e112906c24383b8890ef6ff55b3d3,

title = "Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming",

abstract = "The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.",

author = "Crowther, {T. W.} and Todd-Brown, {K. E. O.} and Rowe, {C. W.} and Wieder, {W. R.} and Carey, {J. C.} and Machmuller, {M. B.} and Snoek, {B. L.} and S. Fang and G. Zhou and Allison, {S. D.} and Blair, {J. M.} and Bridgham, {S. D.} and Burton, {A. J.} and Y. Carrillo and Reich, {P. B.} and Clark, {J. S.} and Classen, {Aimee Taylor} and Dijkstra, {F. A.} and Bo Elberling and Emmett, {B. A.} and M. Estiarte and Frey, {S. D.} and J. Guo and J. Harte and L. Jiang and Johnson, {B. R.} and G. Kr{\"o}el-dulay and Larsen, {Klaus Steenberg} and H. Laudon and Lavallee, {J. M.} and Y. Luo and M. Lupascu and Ma, {L. N.} and S. Marhan and Anders Michelsen and J. Mohan and S. Niu and E. Pendall and J. Pe{\~n}uelas and L. Pfeifer-Meister and C. Poll and S. Reinsch and Reynolds, {L. L.} and Schmidt, {Inger Kappel} and S. Sistla and Sokol, {N. W.} and Templer, {P. H.} and Treseder, {K. K.} and Welker, {J. M.} and Bradford, {M. A.}",

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T1 - Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

AU - Crowther, T. W.

AU - Todd-Brown, K. E. O.

AU - Rowe, C. W.

AU - Wieder, W. R.

AU - Carey, J. C.

AU - Machmuller, M. B.

AU - Snoek, B. L.

AU - Fang, S.

AU - Zhou, G.

AU - Allison, S. D.

AU - Blair, J. M.

AU - Bridgham, S. D.

AU - Burton, A. J.

AU - Carrillo, Y.

AU - Reich, P. B.

AU - Clark, J. S.

AU - Classen, Aimee Taylor

AU - Dijkstra, F. A.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Emmett, B. A.

AU - Estiarte, M.

AU - Frey, S. D.

AU - Guo, J.

AU - Harte, J.

AU - Jiang, L.

AU - Johnson, B. R.

AU - Kröel-dulay, G.

AU - Larsen, Klaus Steenberg

AU - Laudon, H.

AU - Lavallee, J. M.

AU - Luo, Y.

AU - Lupascu, M.

AU - Ma, L. N.

AU - Marhan, S.

AU - Michelsen, Anders

AU - Mohan, J.

AU - Niu, S.

AU - Pendall, E.

AU - Peñuelas, J.

AU - Pfeifer-Meister, L.

AU - Poll, C.

AU - Reinsch, S.

AU - Reynolds, L. L.

AU - Schmidt, Inger Kappel

AU - Sistla, S.

AU - Sokol, N. W.

AU - Templer, P. H.

AU - Treseder, K. K.

AU - Welker, J. M.

AU - Bradford, M. A.

N1 - CENPERM[2016]

PY - 2016/11/30

Y1 - 2016/11/30

N2 - The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

AB - The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

U2 - 10.1038/nature20150

DO - 10.1038/nature20150

M3 - Letter

C2 - 27905442

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 540

SP - 104

EP - 108

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7631

ER -

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

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