Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Orly Razgour; Brenna Forester; John B. Taggart; Michaël Bekaert; Javier Juste; Carlos Ibáñez; Sébastien J. Puechmaille; Roberto Novella-Fernandez; Antton Alberdi; Stéphanie Manel

doi:10.1073/pnas.1820663116

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Orly Razgour, Brenna Forester, John B. Taggart, Michaël Bekaert, Javier Juste, Carlos Ibáñez, Sébastien J. Puechmaille, Roberto Novella-Fernandez, Antton Alberdi, Stéphanie Manel

82 Citationer (Scopus)

Abstract

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Vol/bind	116
Udgave nummer	21
Sider (fra-til)	10418-10423
Antal sider	6
ISSN	0027-8424
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820663116
Status	Udgivet - 2019

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10.1073/pnas.1820663116

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Razgour, O., Forester, B., Taggart, J. B., Bekaert, M., Juste, J., Ibáñez, C., Puechmaille, S. J., Novella-Fernandez, R., Alberdi, A., & Manel, S. (2019). Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(21), 10418-10423. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820663116

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections. / Razgour, Orly; Forester, Brenna; Taggart, John B. et al.

I: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Bind 116, Nr. 21, 2019, s. 10418-10423.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

Razgour, O, Forester, B, Taggart, JB, Bekaert, M, Juste, J, Ibáñez, C, Puechmaille, SJ, Novella-Fernandez, R, Alberdi, A & Manel, S 2019, 'Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, bind 116, nr. 21, s. 10418-10423. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820663116

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title = "Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections",

abstract = "Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species{\textquoteright} future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population{\textquoteright}s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.",

author = "Orly Razgour and Brenna Forester and Taggart, {John B.} and Micha{\"e}l Bekaert and Javier Juste and Carlos Ib{\'a}{\~n}ez and Puechmaille, {S{\'e}bastien J.} and Roberto Novella-Fernandez and Antton Alberdi and St{\'e}phanie Manel",

year = "2019",

doi = "10.1073/pnas.1820663116",

language = "English",

volume = "116",

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AU - Razgour, Orly

AU - Forester, Brenna

AU - Taggart, John B.

AU - Bekaert, Michaël

AU - Juste, Javier

AU - Ibáñez, Carlos

AU - Puechmaille, Sébastien J.

AU - Novella-Fernandez, Roberto

AU - Alberdi, Antton

AU - Manel, Stéphanie

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

AB - Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

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DO - 10.1073/pnas.1820663116

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JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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ER -

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

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