Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique

DERG; Edward Samuel Jones; Finn Tarp

doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003

Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Economic development in low income settings is often associated with an expansion of higher-value agricultural activities. Since these activities often bring new risks, an understanding of cropland decisions and how these interact with shocks is valuable. This paper uses data from Mozambique to examine the effect of weather shocks on cropland decisions. We account for the bounded nature of land shares and estimate a Pooled Fractional Probit model for panel data. Our results show that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks. Farmers shift land use away from cash and permanent crops one year after a drought and from horticulture and permanent crop after a flood. However, this reallocation seems temporary as farmers devote less land to staples after two periods. This is consistent with the aim of maintaining a buffer stock of staples for home consumption.

Original language	English
Journal	Food Policy
Volume	53
Pages (from-to)	9-21
ISSN	0306-9192
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003
Publication status	Published - 1 May 2015

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10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003

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title = "Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique",

abstract = "Economic development in low income settings is often associated with an expansion of higher-value agricultural activities. Since these activities often bring new risks, an understanding of cropland decisions and how these interact with shocks is valuable. This paper uses data from Mozambique to examine the effect of weather shocks on cropland decisions. We account for the bounded nature of land shares and estimate a Pooled Fractional Probit model for panel data. Our results show that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks. Farmers shift land use away from cash and permanent crops one year after a drought and from horticulture and permanent crop after a flood. However, this reallocation seems temporary as farmers devote less land to staples after two periods. This is consistent with the aim of maintaining a buffer stock of staples for home consumption.",

author = "{Salazar Espinoza}, {C{\'e}sar Antonio} and DERG and Jones, {Edward Samuel} and Finn Tarp",

year = "2015",

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doi = "10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003",

language = "English",

volume = "53",

pages = "9--21",

journal = "Food Policy",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique

AU - Salazar Espinoza, César Antonio

AU - DERG

AU - Jones, Edward Samuel

AU - Tarp, Finn

PY - 2015/5/1

Y1 - 2015/5/1

N2 - Economic development in low income settings is often associated with an expansion of higher-value agricultural activities. Since these activities often bring new risks, an understanding of cropland decisions and how these interact with shocks is valuable. This paper uses data from Mozambique to examine the effect of weather shocks on cropland decisions. We account for the bounded nature of land shares and estimate a Pooled Fractional Probit model for panel data. Our results show that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks. Farmers shift land use away from cash and permanent crops one year after a drought and from horticulture and permanent crop after a flood. However, this reallocation seems temporary as farmers devote less land to staples after two periods. This is consistent with the aim of maintaining a buffer stock of staples for home consumption.

AB - Economic development in low income settings is often associated with an expansion of higher-value agricultural activities. Since these activities often bring new risks, an understanding of cropland decisions and how these interact with shocks is valuable. This paper uses data from Mozambique to examine the effect of weather shocks on cropland decisions. We account for the bounded nature of land shares and estimate a Pooled Fractional Probit model for panel data. Our results show that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks. Farmers shift land use away from cash and permanent crops one year after a drought and from horticulture and permanent crop after a flood. However, this reallocation seems temporary as farmers devote less land to staples after two periods. This is consistent with the aim of maintaining a buffer stock of staples for home consumption.

U2 - 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003

DO - 10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.03.003

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0306-9192

VL - 53

SP - 9

EP - 21

JO - Food Policy

JF - Food Policy

ER -

Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique

Abstract

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