Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

A. David  McGuire; Charles Koven; David M Lawrence; Joy S. Clein; Jianyang Xia; Christian  Beer; Eleanor  Burke; Guangsheng  Chen; Xiaodong  Chen; Elchin Jafarov; Andrew H. MacDougall; Sergey Marchenko; Dmitry Nicolsky; Shushi Peng; Annette Rinke; Kazuyuki Saito; Wenxin Zhang; Ramdane Alkama; Theodore J. Bohn; Philippe  Ciais; Bertrand Decharme; Altug Eriki; Istabelle Gouttevin; Tomohiro  Hajima; Daniel J Hayes; Duoying Ji; Gerhard Krinner; Dennis P Lettenmaier; Yiqi Luo; Paul A. Miller; John C.  Moore; Vladimir Romanovsky; Christina Schädel; Kevin Schaefer; Edward A.G. Schuur; Benjamin Smith; Tetsuo Sueyoshi; Qianlai Zhuang

doi:10.1002/2016GB005405

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, David M Lawrence, Joy S. Clein, Jianyang Xia, Christian Beer, Eleanor Burke, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Chen, Elchin Jafarov, Andrew H. MacDougall, Sergey Marchenko, Dmitry Nicolsky, Shushi Peng, Annette Rinke, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe CiaisBertrand Decharme, Altug Eriki, Istabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Daniel J Hayes, Duoying Ji, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P Lettenmaier, Yiqi Luo, Paul A. Miller, John C. Moore, Vladimir Romanovsky, Christina Schädel, Kevin Schaefer, Edward A.G. Schuur, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, Qianlai Zhuang

Geography

71 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO₂ and CH₄ under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10³ km² yr⁻¹). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr⁻¹ between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO₂ was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

Original language	English
Journal	Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Volume	30
Issue number	7
Pages (from-to)	1015–1037
Number of pages	23
ISSN	0886-6236
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405
Publication status	Published - 1 Jul 2016

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McGuire, A. D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D. M., Clein, J. S., Xia, J., Beer, C., Burke, E., Chen, G., Chen, X., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., ... Zhuang, Q. (2016). Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30(7), 1015–1037. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405

McGuire, AD, Koven, C, Lawrence, DM, Clein, JS, Xia, J, Beer, C, Burke, E, Chen, G, Chen, X, Jafarov, E, MacDougall, AH, Marchenko, S, Nicolsky, D, Peng, S, Rinke, A, Saito, K, Zhang, W, Alkama, R, Bohn, TJ, Ciais, P, Decharme, B, Eriki, A, Gouttevin, I, Hajima, T, Hayes, DJ, Ji, D, Krinner, G, Lettenmaier, DP, Luo, Y, Miller, PA, Moore, JC, Romanovsky, V, Schädel, C, Schaefer, K, Schuur, EAG, Smith, B, Sueyoshi, T & Zhuang, Q 2016, 'Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009', Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 30, no. 7, pp. 1015–1037. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405

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title = "Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009",

abstract = "A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.",

author = "McGuire, {A. David} and Charles Koven and Lawrence, {David M} and Clein, {Joy S.} and Jianyang Xia and Christian Beer and Eleanor Burke and Guangsheng Chen and Xiaodong Chen and Elchin Jafarov and MacDougall, {Andrew H.} and Sergey Marchenko and Dmitry Nicolsky and Shushi Peng and Annette Rinke and Kazuyuki Saito and Wenxin Zhang and Ramdane Alkama and Bohn, {Theodore J.} and Philippe Ciais and Bertrand Decharme and Altug Eriki and Istabelle Gouttevin and Tomohiro Hajima and Hayes, {Daniel J} and Duoying Ji and Gerhard Krinner and Lettenmaier, {Dennis P} and Yiqi Luo and Miller, {Paul A.} and Moore, {John C.} and Vladimir Romanovsky and Christina Sch{\"a}del and Kevin Schaefer and Schuur, {Edward A.G.} and Benjamin Smith and Tetsuo Sueyoshi and Qianlai Zhuang",

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T1 - Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

AU - McGuire, A. David

AU - Koven, Charles

AU - Lawrence, David M

AU - Clein, Joy S.

AU - Xia, Jianyang

AU - Beer, Christian

AU - Burke, Eleanor

AU - Chen, Guangsheng

AU - Chen, Xiaodong

AU - Jafarov, Elchin

AU - MacDougall, Andrew H.

AU - Marchenko, Sergey

AU - Nicolsky, Dmitry

AU - Peng, Shushi

AU - Rinke, Annette

AU - Saito, Kazuyuki

AU - Zhang, Wenxin

AU - Alkama, Ramdane

AU - Bohn, Theodore J.

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Decharme, Bertrand

AU - Eriki, Altug

AU - Gouttevin, Istabelle

AU - Hajima, Tomohiro

AU - Hayes, Daniel J

AU - Ji, Duoying

AU - Krinner, Gerhard

AU - Lettenmaier, Dennis P

AU - Luo, Yiqi

AU - Miller, Paul A.

AU - Moore, John C.

AU - Romanovsky, Vladimir

AU - Schädel, Christina

AU - Schaefer, Kevin

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Smith, Benjamin

AU - Sueyoshi, Tetsuo

AU - Zhuang, Qianlai

PY - 2016/7/1

Y1 - 2016/7/1

N2 - A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

AB - A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.

U2 - 10.1002/2016GB005405

DO - 10.1002/2016GB005405

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0886-6236

VL - 30

SP - 1015

EP - 1037

JO - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

JF - Global Biogeochemical Cycles

IS - 7

ER -

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

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