Trends in thyroid cancer: Retrospective analysis of incidence and survival in Denmark 1980-2014

Christian Mirian; Christian Grønhøj; David Hebbelstrup Jensen; Kathrine Kronberg Jakobsen; Kirstine Karnov; Jakob Schmidt Jensen; Christoffer Holst Hahn; Tina Agander Klitmøller; Jens Bentzen; Christian von Buchwald

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2018.05.009

Trends in thyroid cancer: Retrospective analysis of incidence and survival in Denmark 1980-2014

Christian Mirian^*, Christian Grønhøj, David Hebbelstrup Jensen, Kathrine Kronberg Jakobsen, Kirstine Karnov, Jakob Schmidt Jensen, Christoffer Holst Hahn, Tina Agander Klitmøller, Jens Bentzen, Christian von Buchwald

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Clinical Medicine

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence has been reported to be increasing since the 1970 s. The aim of this study was to investigate the change in incidence and survival from 1980 to 2014 in Denmark.

METHODS: We identified patients registered with thyroid cancer in the period 1980-2014. We evaluated the age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), constructed age-period-cohort models (APCs), and evaluated relative survival (RS).

RESULTS: We included 5139 patients. The AAIR was 1.6 cases per 100,000 in 1980 and 4.5 cases in 2014 with an AAPC of 3.4%. The AAIR for papillary carcinomas (n = 2864) quintupled in the study period, and accounts for most of the observed increase in incidence with an AAPC of 4.9%. Follicular carcinomas (n = 920) nearly tripled in AAIR and had the second greatest increase in AAPC. Papillary carcinomas had the best prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 95% and 91%, followed by the follicular carcinomas with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 90% and 80%, respectively. Anaplastic carcinomas (n = 320) had the worst prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 18% and 12%. We found a significant age effect in the APC model for the incidence of thyroid cancer but no significant cohort or period effects.

CONCLUSION: The incidence of thyroid cancer is rising. This is primarily attributable to an increase in papillary carcinomas. The relative survival has improved significantly in Denmark since 1980. The cause of the increasing incidence remains to be established, but enhanced diagnostic scrutiny and increased iodine intake may be influential.

Original language	English
Journal	Cancer Epidemiology
Volume	55
Pages (from-to)	81-87
Number of pages	7
ISSN	1877-7821
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.05.009
Publication status	Published - Aug 2018

Keywords

Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Carcinoma/epidemiology
Carcinoma, Papillary/epidemiology
Child
Child, Preschool
Denmark/epidemiology
Female
Humans
Incidence
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Male
Middle Aged
Mortality/trends
Prognosis
Registries/statistics & numerical data
Retrospective Studies
Survival Rate
Thyroid Neoplasms/epidemiology
Time Factors
Young Adult

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.canep.2018.05.009

Cite this

@article{3e6ae1e7275243518dd991e22f02667c,

title = "Trends in thyroid cancer: Retrospective analysis of incidence and survival in Denmark 1980-2014",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence has been reported to be increasing since the 1970 s. The aim of this study was to investigate the change in incidence and survival from 1980 to 2014 in Denmark.METHODS: We identified patients registered with thyroid cancer in the period 1980-2014. We evaluated the age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), constructed age-period-cohort models (APCs), and evaluated relative survival (RS).RESULTS: We included 5139 patients. The AAIR was 1.6 cases per 100,000 in 1980 and 4.5 cases in 2014 with an AAPC of 3.4%. The AAIR for papillary carcinomas (n = 2864) quintupled in the study period, and accounts for most of the observed increase in incidence with an AAPC of 4.9%. Follicular carcinomas (n = 920) nearly tripled in AAIR and had the second greatest increase in AAPC. Papillary carcinomas had the best prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 95% and 91%, followed by the follicular carcinomas with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 90% and 80%, respectively. Anaplastic carcinomas (n = 320) had the worst prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 18% and 12%. We found a significant age effect in the APC model for the incidence of thyroid cancer but no significant cohort or period effects.CONCLUSION: The incidence of thyroid cancer is rising. This is primarily attributable to an increase in papillary carcinomas. The relative survival has improved significantly in Denmark since 1980. The cause of the increasing incidence remains to be established, but enhanced diagnostic scrutiny and increased iodine intake may be influential.",

keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Carcinoma/epidemiology, Carcinoma, Papillary/epidemiology, Child, Child, Preschool, Denmark/epidemiology, Female, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality/trends, Prognosis, Registries/statistics & numerical data, Retrospective Studies, Survival Rate, Thyroid Neoplasms/epidemiology, Time Factors, Young Adult",

author = "Christian Mirian and Christian Gr{\o}nh{\o}j and Jensen, {David Hebbelstrup} and Jakobsen, {Kathrine Kronberg} and Kirstine Karnov and Jensen, {Jakob Schmidt} and Hahn, {Christoffer Holst} and Klitm{\o}ller, {Tina Agander} and Jens Bentzen and {von Buchwald}, Christian",

note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.",

year = "2018",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1016/j.canep.2018.05.009",

language = "English",

volume = "55",

pages = "81--87",

journal = "Cancer Epidemiology",

issn = "1877-7821",

publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Trends in thyroid cancer

T2 - Retrospective analysis of incidence and survival in Denmark 1980-2014

AU - Mirian, Christian

AU - Grønhøj, Christian

AU - Jensen, David Hebbelstrup

AU - Jakobsen, Kathrine Kronberg

AU - Karnov, Kirstine

AU - Jensen, Jakob Schmidt

AU - Hahn, Christoffer Holst

AU - Klitmøller, Tina Agander

AU - Bentzen, Jens

AU - von Buchwald, Christian

PY - 2018/8

Y1 - 2018/8

N2 - BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence has been reported to be increasing since the 1970 s. The aim of this study was to investigate the change in incidence and survival from 1980 to 2014 in Denmark.METHODS: We identified patients registered with thyroid cancer in the period 1980-2014. We evaluated the age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), constructed age-period-cohort models (APCs), and evaluated relative survival (RS).RESULTS: We included 5139 patients. The AAIR was 1.6 cases per 100,000 in 1980 and 4.5 cases in 2014 with an AAPC of 3.4%. The AAIR for papillary carcinomas (n = 2864) quintupled in the study period, and accounts for most of the observed increase in incidence with an AAPC of 4.9%. Follicular carcinomas (n = 920) nearly tripled in AAIR and had the second greatest increase in AAPC. Papillary carcinomas had the best prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 95% and 91%, followed by the follicular carcinomas with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 90% and 80%, respectively. Anaplastic carcinomas (n = 320) had the worst prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 18% and 12%. We found a significant age effect in the APC model for the incidence of thyroid cancer but no significant cohort or period effects.CONCLUSION: The incidence of thyroid cancer is rising. This is primarily attributable to an increase in papillary carcinomas. The relative survival has improved significantly in Denmark since 1980. The cause of the increasing incidence remains to be established, but enhanced diagnostic scrutiny and increased iodine intake may be influential.

AB - BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer incidence has been reported to be increasing since the 1970 s. The aim of this study was to investigate the change in incidence and survival from 1980 to 2014 in Denmark.METHODS: We identified patients registered with thyroid cancer in the period 1980-2014. We evaluated the age-adjusted incidence rate (AAIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), constructed age-period-cohort models (APCs), and evaluated relative survival (RS).RESULTS: We included 5139 patients. The AAIR was 1.6 cases per 100,000 in 1980 and 4.5 cases in 2014 with an AAPC of 3.4%. The AAIR for papillary carcinomas (n = 2864) quintupled in the study period, and accounts for most of the observed increase in incidence with an AAPC of 4.9%. Follicular carcinomas (n = 920) nearly tripled in AAIR and had the second greatest increase in AAPC. Papillary carcinomas had the best prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 95% and 91%, followed by the follicular carcinomas with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 90% and 80%, respectively. Anaplastic carcinomas (n = 320) had the worst prognosis with 1-year and 5-year RSs of 18% and 12%. We found a significant age effect in the APC model for the incidence of thyroid cancer but no significant cohort or period effects.CONCLUSION: The incidence of thyroid cancer is rising. This is primarily attributable to an increase in papillary carcinomas. The relative survival has improved significantly in Denmark since 1980. The cause of the increasing incidence remains to be established, but enhanced diagnostic scrutiny and increased iodine intake may be influential.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Age Factors

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Carcinoma/epidemiology

KW - Carcinoma, Papillary/epidemiology

KW - Child

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - Denmark/epidemiology

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Incidence

KW - Infant

KW - Infant, Newborn

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Mortality/trends

KW - Prognosis

KW - Registries/statistics & numerical data

KW - Retrospective Studies

KW - Survival Rate

KW - Thyroid Neoplasms/epidemiology

KW - Time Factors

KW - Young Adult

U2 - 10.1016/j.canep.2018.05.009

DO - 10.1016/j.canep.2018.05.009

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 29852396

SN - 1877-7821

VL - 55

SP - 81

EP - 87

JO - Cancer Epidemiology

JF - Cancer Epidemiology

ER -

Trends in thyroid cancer: Retrospective analysis of incidence and survival in Denmark 1980-2014

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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