Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis

Eric B. Ford; Daniel C. Fabrycky; Jason H. Steffen; Joshua A. Carter; Francois Fressin; Matthew J. Holman; Jack J. Lissauer; Althea V. Moorhead; Robert C. Morehead; Darin Ragozzine; Jason F. Rowe; William F. Welsh; Christopher Allen; Natalie M. Batalha; William J. Borucki; Stephen T. Bryson; Lars A. Buchhave; Christopher J. Burke; Douglas A. Caldwell; David Charbonneau; Bruce D. Clarke; William D. Cochran; Jean-Michel Désert; Michael Endl; Mark E. Everett; Debra A. Fischer; Thomas N. Gautier; Ron L. Gilliland; Jon M. Jenkins; Michael R. Haas; Elliott Horch; Steve B. Howell; Khadeejah A. Ibrahim; Howard Isaacson; David G. Koch; David W. Latham; Jie Li; Philip Lucas; Phillip J. MacQueen; Geoffrey W. Marcy; Sean McCauliff; Fergal R. Mullally; Samuel N. Quinn; Elisa Quintana; Avi Shporer; Martin Still; Peter Tenenbaum; Susan E. Thompson; Guillermo Torres; Joseph D. Twicken; Bill Wohler

doi:10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113

Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis

Eric B. Ford, Daniel C. Fabrycky, Jason H. Steffen, Joshua A. Carter, Francois Fressin, Matthew J. Holman, Jack J. Lissauer, Althea V. Moorhead, Robert C. Morehead, Darin Ragozzine, Jason F. Rowe, William F. Welsh, Christopher Allen, Natalie M. Batalha, William J. Borucki, Stephen T. Bryson, Lars A. Buchhave, Christopher J. Burke, Douglas A. Caldwell, David CharbonneauBruce D. Clarke, William D. Cochran, Jean-Michel Désert, Michael Endl, Mark E. Everett, Debra A. Fischer, Thomas N. Gautier, Ron L. Gilliland, Jon M. Jenkins, Michael R. Haas, Elliott Horch, Steve B. Howell, Khadeejah A. Ibrahim, Howard Isaacson, David G. Koch, David W. Latham, Jie Li, Philip Lucas, Phillip J. MacQueen, Geoffrey W. Marcy, Sean McCauliff, Fergal R. Mullally, Samuel N. Quinn, Elisa Quintana, Avi Shporer, Martin Still, Peter Tenenbaum, Susan E. Thompson, Guillermo Torres, Joseph D. Twicken, Bill Wohler

Astrophysics and Planetary Science

66 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We present a new method for confirming transiting planets based on the combination of transit timing variations (TTVs) and dynamical stability. Correlated TTVs provide evidence that the pair of bodies is in the same physical system. Orbital stability provides upper limits for the masses of the transiting companions that are in the planetary regime. This paper describes a non-parametric technique for quantifying the statistical significance of TTVs based on the correlation of two TTV data sets. We apply this method to an analysis of the TTVs of two stars with multiple transiting planet candidates identified by Kepler. We confirm four transiting planets in two multiple-planet systems based on their TTVs and the constraints imposed by dynamical stability. An additional three candidates in these same systems are not confirmed as planets, but are likely to be validated as real planets once further observations and analyses are possible. If all were confirmed, these systems would be near 4:6:9 and 2:4:6:9 period commensurabilities. Our results demonstrate that TTVs provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets, including low-mass planets and planets around faint stars for which Doppler follow-up is not practical with existing facilities. Continued Kepler observations will dramatically improve the constraints on the planet masses and orbits and provide sensitivity for detecting additional non-transiting planets. If Kepler observations were extended to eight years, then a similar analysis could likely confirm systems with multiple closely spaced, small transiting planets in or near the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

Original language	English
Article number	113
Journal	Astrophysical Journal
Volume	750
Issue number	2
Number of pages	18
ISSN	0004-637X
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113
Publication status	Published - 10 May 2012

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Ford, E. B., Fabrycky, D. C., Steffen, J. H., Carter, J. A., Fressin, F., Holman, M. J., Lissauer, J. J., Moorhead, A. V., Morehead, R. C., Ragozzine, D., Rowe, J. F., Welsh, W. F., Allen, C., Batalha, N. M., Borucki, W. J., Bryson, S. T., Buchhave, L. A., Burke, C. J., Caldwell, D. A., ... Wohler, B. (2012). Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis. Astrophysical Journal, 750(2), [113]. https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113

Ford, EB, Fabrycky, DC, Steffen, JH, Carter, JA, Fressin, F, Holman, MJ, Lissauer, JJ, Moorhead, AV, Morehead, RC, Ragozzine, D, Rowe, JF, Welsh, WF, Allen, C, Batalha, NM, Borucki, WJ, Bryson, ST, Buchhave, LA, Burke, CJ, Caldwell, DA, Charbonneau, D, Clarke, BD, Cochran, WD, Désert, J-M, Endl, M, Everett, ME, Fischer, DA, Gautier, TN, Gilliland, RL, Jenkins, JM, Haas, MR, Horch, E, Howell, SB, Ibrahim, KA, Isaacson, H, Koch, DG, Latham, DW, Li, J, Lucas, P, MacQueen, PJ, Marcy, GW, McCauliff, S, Mullally, FR, Quinn, SN, Quintana, E, Shporer, A, Still, M, Tenenbaum, P, Thompson, SE, Torres, G, Twicken, JD & Wohler, B 2012, 'Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis', Astrophysical Journal, vol. 750, no. 2, 113. https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113

@article{de201c2718524998b20880200fc5937d,

title = "Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis",

abstract = "We present a new method for confirming transiting planets based on the combination of transit timing variations (TTVs) and dynamical stability. Correlated TTVs provide evidence that the pair of bodies is in the same physical system. Orbital stability provides upper limits for the masses of the transiting companions that are in the planetary regime. This paper describes a non-parametric technique for quantifying the statistical significance of TTVs based on the correlation of two TTV data sets. We apply this method to an analysis of the TTVs of two stars with multiple transiting planet candidates identified by Kepler. We confirm four transiting planets in two multiple-planet systems based on their TTVs and the constraints imposed by dynamical stability. An additional three candidates in these same systems are not confirmed as planets, but are likely to be validated as real planets once further observations and analyses are possible. If all were confirmed, these systems would be near 4:6:9 and 2:4:6:9 period commensurabilities. Our results demonstrate that TTVs provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets, including low-mass planets and planets around faint stars for which Doppler follow-up is not practical with existing facilities. Continued Kepler observations will dramatically improve the constraints on the planet masses and orbits and provide sensitivity for detecting additional non-transiting planets. If Kepler observations were extended to eight years, then a similar analysis could likely confirm systems with multiple closely spaced, small transiting planets in or near the habitable zone of solar-type stars.",

author = "Ford, {Eric B.} and Fabrycky, {Daniel C.} and Steffen, {Jason H.} and Carter, {Joshua A.} and Francois Fressin and Holman, {Matthew J.} and Lissauer, {Jack J.} and Moorhead, {Althea V.} and Morehead, {Robert C.} and Darin Ragozzine and Rowe, {Jason F.} and Welsh, {William F.} and Christopher Allen and Batalha, {Natalie M.} and Borucki, {William J.} and Bryson, {Stephen T.} and Buchhave, {Lars A.} and Burke, {Christopher J.} and Caldwell, {Douglas A.} and David Charbonneau and Clarke, {Bruce D.} and Cochran, {William D.} and Jean-Michel D{\'e}sert and Michael Endl and Everett, {Mark E.} and Fischer, {Debra A.} and Gautier, {Thomas N.} and Gilliland, {Ron L.} and Jenkins, {Jon M.} and Haas, {Michael R.} and Elliott Horch and Howell, {Steve B.} and Ibrahim, {Khadeejah A.} and Howard Isaacson and Koch, {David G.} and Latham, {David W.} and Jie Li and Philip Lucas and MacQueen, {Phillip J.} and Marcy, {Geoffrey W.} and Sean McCauliff and Mullally, {Fergal R.} and Quinn, {Samuel N.} and Elisa Quintana and Avi Shporer and Martin Still and Peter Tenenbaum and Thompson, {Susan E.} and Guillermo Torres and Twicken, {Joseph D.} and Bill Wohler",

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doi = "10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113",

language = "English",

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T1 - Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis

AU - Ford, Eric B.

AU - Fabrycky, Daniel C.

AU - Steffen, Jason H.

AU - Carter, Joshua A.

AU - Fressin, Francois

AU - Holman, Matthew J.

AU - Lissauer, Jack J.

AU - Moorhead, Althea V.

AU - Morehead, Robert C.

AU - Ragozzine, Darin

AU - Rowe, Jason F.

AU - Welsh, William F.

AU - Allen, Christopher

AU - Batalha, Natalie M.

AU - Borucki, William J.

AU - Bryson, Stephen T.

AU - Buchhave, Lars A.

AU - Burke, Christopher J.

AU - Caldwell, Douglas A.

AU - Charbonneau, David

AU - Clarke, Bruce D.

AU - Cochran, William D.

AU - Désert, Jean-Michel

AU - Endl, Michael

AU - Everett, Mark E.

AU - Fischer, Debra A.

AU - Gautier, Thomas N.

AU - Gilliland, Ron L.

AU - Jenkins, Jon M.

AU - Haas, Michael R.

AU - Horch, Elliott

AU - Howell, Steve B.

AU - Ibrahim, Khadeejah A.

AU - Isaacson, Howard

AU - Koch, David G.

AU - Latham, David W.

AU - Li, Jie

AU - Lucas, Philip

AU - MacQueen, Phillip J.

AU - Marcy, Geoffrey W.

AU - McCauliff, Sean

AU - Mullally, Fergal R.

AU - Quinn, Samuel N.

AU - Quintana, Elisa

AU - Shporer, Avi

AU - Still, Martin

AU - Tenenbaum, Peter

AU - Thompson, Susan E.

AU - Torres, Guillermo

AU - Twicken, Joseph D.

AU - Wohler, Bill

PY - 2012/5/10

Y1 - 2012/5/10

N2 - We present a new method for confirming transiting planets based on the combination of transit timing variations (TTVs) and dynamical stability. Correlated TTVs provide evidence that the pair of bodies is in the same physical system. Orbital stability provides upper limits for the masses of the transiting companions that are in the planetary regime. This paper describes a non-parametric technique for quantifying the statistical significance of TTVs based on the correlation of two TTV data sets. We apply this method to an analysis of the TTVs of two stars with multiple transiting planet candidates identified by Kepler. We confirm four transiting planets in two multiple-planet systems based on their TTVs and the constraints imposed by dynamical stability. An additional three candidates in these same systems are not confirmed as planets, but are likely to be validated as real planets once further observations and analyses are possible. If all were confirmed, these systems would be near 4:6:9 and 2:4:6:9 period commensurabilities. Our results demonstrate that TTVs provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets, including low-mass planets and planets around faint stars for which Doppler follow-up is not practical with existing facilities. Continued Kepler observations will dramatically improve the constraints on the planet masses and orbits and provide sensitivity for detecting additional non-transiting planets. If Kepler observations were extended to eight years, then a similar analysis could likely confirm systems with multiple closely spaced, small transiting planets in or near the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

AB - We present a new method for confirming transiting planets based on the combination of transit timing variations (TTVs) and dynamical stability. Correlated TTVs provide evidence that the pair of bodies is in the same physical system. Orbital stability provides upper limits for the masses of the transiting companions that are in the planetary regime. This paper describes a non-parametric technique for quantifying the statistical significance of TTVs based on the correlation of two TTV data sets. We apply this method to an analysis of the TTVs of two stars with multiple transiting planet candidates identified by Kepler. We confirm four transiting planets in two multiple-planet systems based on their TTVs and the constraints imposed by dynamical stability. An additional three candidates in these same systems are not confirmed as planets, but are likely to be validated as real planets once further observations and analyses are possible. If all were confirmed, these systems would be near 4:6:9 and 2:4:6:9 period commensurabilities. Our results demonstrate that TTVs provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets, including low-mass planets and planets around faint stars for which Doppler follow-up is not practical with existing facilities. Continued Kepler observations will dramatically improve the constraints on the planet masses and orbits and provide sensitivity for detecting additional non-transiting planets. If Kepler observations were extended to eight years, then a similar analysis could likely confirm systems with multiple closely spaced, small transiting planets in or near the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

U2 - 10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113

DO - 10.1088/0004-637X/750/2/113

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0004-637X

VL - 750

JO - Astrophysical Journal

JF - Astrophysical Journal

IS - 2

M1 - 113

ER -

Transit timing observations from Kepler. II. Confirmation of two multiplanet systems via a non-parametric correlation analysis

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