Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking

TY - JOUR

T1 - Tipping points

T2 - Early warning and wishful thinking

AU - Ditlevsen, Peter

AU - Johnsen, Sigfus Johann

PY - 2010/10/1

Y1 - 2010/10/1

N2 - The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Present day general circulation climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they are due to bifurcations in the structural stability of the climate or if they are induced by stochastic fluctuations. By analyzing a high resolution ice core record we exclude the bifurcation scenario, which strongly suggests that they are noise induced and thus have very limited predictability.

AB - The causes for and possible predictions of rapid climate changes are poorly understood. The most pronounced changes observed, beside the glacial terminations, are the Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Present day general circulation climate models simulating glacial conditions are not capable of reproducing these rapid shifts. It is thus not known if they are due to bifurcations in the structural stability of the climate or if they are induced by stochastic fluctuations. By analyzing a high resolution ice core record we exclude the bifurcation scenario, which strongly suggests that they are noise induced and thus have very limited predictability.

U2 - 10.1029/2010gl044486

DO - 10.1029/2010gl044486

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 37

SP - L19703

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

ER -