The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification

TY - JOUR

T1 - The potential of Russia to increase its wheat production through cropland expansion and intensification

AU - Schierhorn, Florian

AU - Prishchepov, Alexander

AU - Müller, Daniel

AU - Faramarzi, Monireh

AU - Balmann, Alfons

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Russia is a major player in the global wheat market, but extensive unused land resources and large yield gaps suggest that wheat production can be substantially increased. We combined time series of cultivated cropland, abandoned cropland and yield gap estimates to assess the potential production of wheat in European Russia. Current wheat production is constrained by volatile inter-annual precipitation patterns and low applications of nitrogen fertilizers. We demonstrate that modest increases in the crop productivity and the recultivation of the recently abandoned croplands could increase wheat production by 9-32 million tons under rainfed conditions. Increases in the wheat yields, particularly within the fertile black soil belt in southern European Russia, will contribute the major share of the prospective production increases. Frequently recurring droughts, likely exacerbated by future climate change, and adverse market conditions jeopardize the exploitation of the production potentials. Improved adaptation to the volatile climate conditions and substantial institutional and political reforms in the agricultural sector are necessary to leverage the agricultural production potential of Russia.

AB - Russia is a major player in the global wheat market, but extensive unused land resources and large yield gaps suggest that wheat production can be substantially increased. We combined time series of cultivated cropland, abandoned cropland and yield gap estimates to assess the potential production of wheat in European Russia. Current wheat production is constrained by volatile inter-annual precipitation patterns and low applications of nitrogen fertilizers. We demonstrate that modest increases in the crop productivity and the recultivation of the recently abandoned croplands could increase wheat production by 9-32 million tons under rainfed conditions. Increases in the wheat yields, particularly within the fertile black soil belt in southern European Russia, will contribute the major share of the prospective production increases. Frequently recurring droughts, likely exacerbated by future climate change, and adverse market conditions jeopardize the exploitation of the production potentials. Improved adaptation to the volatile climate conditions and substantial institutional and political reforms in the agricultural sector are necessary to leverage the agricultural production potential of Russia.

KW - Agriculture

KW - Crop production

KW - Land abandonment

KW - Recultivation

KW - Russia

KW - Yield gap

U2 - 10.1016/j.gfs.2014.10.007

DO - 10.1016/j.gfs.2014.10.007

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84919635679

SN - 2211-9124

VL - 3

SP - 133

EP - 141

JO - Global Food Security

JF - Global Food Security

IS - 3-4

ER -