The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

TY - UNPB

T1 - The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

AU - Thurlow, James

AU - Tarp, Finn

AU - McCoy, Simon

AU - Nguyen, Manh Hai

AU - Breisinger, Clemens

AU - Arndt, Channing

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam..

AB - Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam..

M3 - Working paper

T3 - WIDER Working Paper

BT - The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

PB - UNU-WIDER

ER -