The effect of generation and age on turnout to the European Parliament: How turnout will continue to decline in the future

Yosef Bhatti; Kasper Møller Hansen; Hanna Wass

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2011.11.004

The effect of generation and age on turnout to the European Parliament: How turnout will continue to decline in the future

Yosef Bhatti, Kasper Møller Hansen, Hanna Wass

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout between pre- and post-baby-boomer generations though there are substantial differences across countries. Age has a curvilinear effect on turnout even when generation is taken into account, but the age composition has remained relatively stable over time. We utilize the estimated coefficients to predict future changes in turnout as a result of the expected shifts in the generational and age compositions over the next 30 years. The results point to a continued decline in turnout to EP elections – especially between the years of 2020 and 2040.

Original language	English
Journal	Electoral Studies
Volume	31
Issue number	2
Pages (from-to)	262-272
ISSN	0261-3794
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.11.004
Publication status	Published - Jun 2012

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10.1016/j.electstud.2011.11.004

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title = "The effect of generation and age on turnout to the European Parliament: How turnout will continue to decline in the future ",

abstract = "Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout between pre- and post-baby-boomer generations though there are substantial differences across countries. Age has a curvilinear effect on turnout even when generation is taken into account, but the age composition has remained relatively stable over time. We utilize the estimated coefficients to predict future changes in turnout as a result of the expected shifts in the generational and age compositions over the next 30 years. The results point to a continued decline in turnout to EP elections – especially between the years of 2020 and 2040.",

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T1 - The effect of generation and age on turnout to the European Parliament

T2 - How turnout will continue to decline in the future

AU - Bhatti, Yosef

AU - Hansen, Kasper Møller

AU - Wass, Hanna

PY - 2012/6

Y1 - 2012/6

N2 - Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout between pre- and post-baby-boomer generations though there are substantial differences across countries. Age has a curvilinear effect on turnout even when generation is taken into account, but the age composition has remained relatively stable over time. We utilize the estimated coefficients to predict future changes in turnout as a result of the expected shifts in the generational and age compositions over the next 30 years. The results point to a continued decline in turnout to EP elections – especially between the years of 2020 and 2040.

AB - Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout between pre- and post-baby-boomer generations though there are substantial differences across countries. Age has a curvilinear effect on turnout even when generation is taken into account, but the age composition has remained relatively stable over time. We utilize the estimated coefficients to predict future changes in turnout as a result of the expected shifts in the generational and age compositions over the next 30 years. The results point to a continued decline in turnout to EP elections – especially between the years of 2020 and 2040.

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DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2011.11.004

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