TY - JOUR
T1 - The association between serum biomarkers and disease outcome in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection
T2 - results of two international observational cohort studies
AU - Davey, Richard T
AU - Lynfield, Ruth
AU - Dwyer, Dominic E
AU - Losso, Marcello H
AU - Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro
AU - Wentworth, Deborah
AU - Lane, H Clifford
AU - Dewar, Robin
AU - Rupert, Adam
AU - Metcalf, Julia A
AU - Pett, Sarah L
AU - Uyeki, Timothy M
AU - Bruguera, Jose Maria
AU - Angus, Brian
AU - Cummins, Nathan
AU - Lundgren, Jens
AU - Neaton, James D
AU - INSIGHT FLU 002 & 003 Study Groups
PY - 2013/2/27
Y1 - 2013/2/27
N2 - Background: Prospective studies establishing the temporal relationship between the degree of inflammation and human influenza disease progression are scarce. To assess predictors of disease progression among patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection, 25 inflammatory biomarkers measured at enrollment were analyzed in two international observational cohort studies. Methods: Among patients with RT-PCR-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, odds ratios (ORs) estimated by logistic regression were used to summarize the associations of biomarkers measured at enrollment with worsened disease outcome or death after 14 days of follow-up for those seeking outpatient care (FLU 002) or after 60 days for those hospitalized with influenza complications (FLU 003). Biomarkers that were significantly associated with progression in both studies (p<0.05) or only in one (p<0.002 after Bonferroni correction) were identified. Results: In FLU 002 28/528 (5.3%) outpatients had influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection that progressed to a study endpoint of complications, hospitalization or death, whereas in FLU 003 28/170 (16.5%) inpatients enrolled from the general ward and 21/39 (53.8%) inpatients enrolled directly from the ICU experienced disease progression. Higher levels of 12 of the 25 markers were significantly associated with subsequent disease progression. Of these, 7 markers (IL-6, CD163, IL-10, LBP, IL-2, MCP-1, and IP-10), all with ORs for the 3rd versus 1st tertile of 2.5 or greater, were significant (p<0.05) in both outpatients and inpatients. In contrast, five markers (sICAM-1, IL-8, TNF-α, D-dimer, and sVCAM-1), all with ORs for the 3rd versus 1st tertile greater than 3.2, were significantly (p≤.002) associated with disease progression among hospitalized patients only. Conclusions: In patients presenting with varying severities of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, a baseline elevation in several biomarkers associated with inflammation, coagulation, or immune function strongly predicted a higher risk of disease progression. It is conceivable that interventions designed to abrogate these baseline elevations might affect disease outcome.
AB - Background: Prospective studies establishing the temporal relationship between the degree of inflammation and human influenza disease progression are scarce. To assess predictors of disease progression among patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection, 25 inflammatory biomarkers measured at enrollment were analyzed in two international observational cohort studies. Methods: Among patients with RT-PCR-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, odds ratios (ORs) estimated by logistic regression were used to summarize the associations of biomarkers measured at enrollment with worsened disease outcome or death after 14 days of follow-up for those seeking outpatient care (FLU 002) or after 60 days for those hospitalized with influenza complications (FLU 003). Biomarkers that were significantly associated with progression in both studies (p<0.05) or only in one (p<0.002 after Bonferroni correction) were identified. Results: In FLU 002 28/528 (5.3%) outpatients had influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection that progressed to a study endpoint of complications, hospitalization or death, whereas in FLU 003 28/170 (16.5%) inpatients enrolled from the general ward and 21/39 (53.8%) inpatients enrolled directly from the ICU experienced disease progression. Higher levels of 12 of the 25 markers were significantly associated with subsequent disease progression. Of these, 7 markers (IL-6, CD163, IL-10, LBP, IL-2, MCP-1, and IP-10), all with ORs for the 3rd versus 1st tertile of 2.5 or greater, were significant (p<0.05) in both outpatients and inpatients. In contrast, five markers (sICAM-1, IL-8, TNF-α, D-dimer, and sVCAM-1), all with ORs for the 3rd versus 1st tertile greater than 3.2, were significantly (p≤.002) associated with disease progression among hospitalized patients only. Conclusions: In patients presenting with varying severities of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, a baseline elevation in several biomarkers associated with inflammation, coagulation, or immune function strongly predicted a higher risk of disease progression. It is conceivable that interventions designed to abrogate these baseline elevations might affect disease outcome.
KW - Adult
KW - Biological Markers
KW - Cohort Studies
KW - Cytokines
KW - Disease Progression
KW - Female
KW - Humans
KW - Inflammation Mediators
KW - Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
KW - Influenza, Human
KW - Male
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Odds Ratio
KW - Prognosis
KW - Young Adult
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0057121
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0057121
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 23468921
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 8
SP - e57121
JO - PLoS Computational Biology
JF - PLoS Computational Biology
IS - 2
ER -
