Testing Garch-X Type Models

    Abstract

    We present novel theory for testing for reduction of GARCH-X type models with an exogenous (X) covariate to standard GARCH type models. To deal with the problems of potential nuisance parameters on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identification under the null, we exploit a noticeable property of specific zero-entries in the inverse information of the GARCH-X type models. Specifically, we consider sequential testing based on two likelihood ratio tests and as demonstrated the structure of the inverse information implies that the proposed test neither depends on whether the nuisance parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space, nor on lack of identification. Our general results on GARCH-X type models are applied to Gaussian based GARCH-X models, GARCH-X models with Student's t-distributed innovations as well as the integer-valued GARCH-X (PAR-X) models.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages35
    Publication statusPublished - 2017
    SeriesUniversity of Copenhagen. Institute of Economics. Discussion Papers (Online)
    Number17-15
    ISSN1601-2461

    Keywords

    • Faculty of Social Sciences
    • Testing on the Boundary
    • Likelihood-Ratio Test
    • Non-Identification
    • GARCH-X
    • PAR-X
    • GARCH Models
    • Integer-Valued

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