Summary of the evidence of breast cancer service screening outcomes in Europe and first estimate of the benefit and harm balance sheet

TY - JOUR

T1 - Summary of the evidence of breast cancer service screening outcomes in Europe and first estimate of the benefit and harm balance sheet

AU - Paci, Eugenio

AU - EUROSCREEN Working Group

AU - Lynge, Elsebeth

PY - 2012/9

Y1 - 2012/9

N2 - Objectives To construct a European balance sheet of key outcomes of population-based mammographic breast cancer screening, to inform policy-makers, stakeholders and invited women. Methods From the studies reviewed, the primary benefit of screening, breast cancer mortality reduction, was compared with the main harms, over-diagnosis and false-positive screening results (FPRs). Results Pooled estimates of breast cancer mortality reduction among invited women were 25% in incidence-based mortality studies and 31% in case-control studies (38% and 48% among women actually screened). Estimates of over-diagnosis ranged from 1% to 10% of the expected incidence in the absence of screening. The combined estimate of over-diagnosis for screened women, from European studies correctly adjusted for lead time and underlying trend, was 6.5%. For women undergoing 10 biennial screening tests, the estimated cumulative risk of a FPR followed by noninvasive assessment was 17%, and 3% having an invasive assessment. For every 1000 women screened biennially from age 50-51 until age 68-69 and followed up to age 79, an estimated seven to nine lives are saved, four cases are over-diagnosed, 170 women have at least one recall followed by non-invasive assessment with a negative result and 30 women have at least one recall followed by invasive procedures yielding a negative result. Conclusions The chance of saving a womans life by population-based mammographic screening of appropriate quality is greater than that of over-diagnosis. Service screening in Europe achieves a mortality benefit at least as great as the randomized controlled trials. These outcomes should be communicated to women offered service screening in Europe.

AB - Objectives To construct a European balance sheet of key outcomes of population-based mammographic breast cancer screening, to inform policy-makers, stakeholders and invited women. Methods From the studies reviewed, the primary benefit of screening, breast cancer mortality reduction, was compared with the main harms, over-diagnosis and false-positive screening results (FPRs). Results Pooled estimates of breast cancer mortality reduction among invited women were 25% in incidence-based mortality studies and 31% in case-control studies (38% and 48% among women actually screened). Estimates of over-diagnosis ranged from 1% to 10% of the expected incidence in the absence of screening. The combined estimate of over-diagnosis for screened women, from European studies correctly adjusted for lead time and underlying trend, was 6.5%. For women undergoing 10 biennial screening tests, the estimated cumulative risk of a FPR followed by noninvasive assessment was 17%, and 3% having an invasive assessment. For every 1000 women screened biennially from age 50-51 until age 68-69 and followed up to age 79, an estimated seven to nine lives are saved, four cases are over-diagnosed, 170 women have at least one recall followed by non-invasive assessment with a negative result and 30 women have at least one recall followed by invasive procedures yielding a negative result. Conclusions The chance of saving a womans life by population-based mammographic screening of appropriate quality is greater than that of over-diagnosis. Service screening in Europe achieves a mortality benefit at least as great as the randomized controlled trials. These outcomes should be communicated to women offered service screening in Europe.

KW - Aged

KW - Breast Neoplasms

KW - Early Detection of Cancer

KW - Europe

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Mammography

KW - Middle Aged

U2 - 10.1258/jms.2012.012077

DO - 10.1258/jms.2012.012077

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 22972806

SN - 0969-1413

VL - 19 Suppl 1

SP - 5

EP - 13

JO - Journal of Medical Screening

JF - Journal of Medical Screening

ER -