Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen; Niels Jákup Korsgaard; Anders Anker Bjørk; Shfaqat A. Khan; Jason E. Box; Svend Visby Funder; Nicolaj K. Larsen; Jonathan L. Bamber; William Colgan; Michiel van den Broeke; Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen; Christopher Nuth; Anders Schomacker; Camilla S. Andresen; Eske Willerslev; Kurt H. Kjær

doi:10.1038/nature16183

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

Kristian Kjellerup Kjeldsen, Niels Jákup Korsgaard, Anders Anker Bjørk, Shfaqat A. Khan, Jason E. Box, Svend Visby Funder, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Jonathan L. Bamber, William Colgan, Michiel van den Broeke, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Christopher Nuth, Anders Schomacker, Camilla S. Andresen, Eske Willerslev, Kurt H. Kjær

124 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

Original language	English
Journal	Nature
Volume	528
Issue number	7582
Pages (from-to)	396-400
Number of pages	5
ISSN	0028-0836
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16183
Publication status	Published - 16 Dec 2015

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Kjeldsen, K. K., Korsgaard, N. J., Bjørk, A. A., Khan, S. A., Box, J. E., Funder, S. V., Larsen, N. K., Bamber, J. L., Colgan, W., van den Broeke, M., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Nuth, C., Schomacker, A., Andresen, C. S., Willerslev, E., & Kjær, K. H. (2015). Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900. Nature, 528(7582), 396-400. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16183

Kjeldsen, KK, Korsgaard, NJ, Bjørk, AA, Khan, SA, Box, JE, Funder, SV, Larsen, NK, Bamber, JL, Colgan, W, van den Broeke, M, Siggaard-Andersen, M-L, Nuth, C, Schomacker, A, Andresen, CS, Willerslev, E & Kjær, KH 2015, 'Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900', Nature, vol. 528, no. 7582, pp. 396-400. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16183

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title = "Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900",

abstract = "The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.",

author = "Kjeldsen, {Kristian Kjellerup} and Korsgaard, {Niels J{\'a}kup} and Bj{\o}rk, {Anders Anker} and Khan, {Shfaqat A.} and Box, {Jason E.} and Funder, {Svend Visby} and Larsen, {Nicolaj K.} and Bamber, {Jonathan L.} and William Colgan and {van den Broeke}, Michiel and Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen and Christopher Nuth and Anders Schomacker and Andresen, {Camilla S.} and Eske Willerslev and Kj{\ae}r, {Kurt H.}",

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T1 - Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

AU - Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup

AU - Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

AU - Bjørk, Anders Anker

AU - Khan, Shfaqat A.

AU - Box, Jason E.

AU - Funder, Svend Visby

AU - Larsen, Nicolaj K.

AU - Bamber, Jonathan L.

AU - Colgan, William

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel

AU - Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise

AU - Nuth, Christopher

AU - Schomacker, Anders

AU - Andresen, Camilla S.

AU - Willerslev, Eske

AU - Kjær, Kurt H.

PY - 2015/12/16

Y1 - 2015/12/16

N2 - The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

AB - The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to predict global sea level rise.

U2 - 10.1038/nature16183

DO - 10.1038/nature16183

M3 - Letter

C2 - 26672555

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 528

SP - 396

EP - 400

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7582

ER -

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

Abstract

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