Space-time clustering of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in Bangladesh

S.S.U. Ahmed; Annette Kjær Ersbøll; P.K. Biswas; Jens Peter Christensen

doi:10.1017/s0950268810000178

Space-time clustering of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in Bangladesh

S.S.U. Ahmed, Annette Kjær Ersbøll, P.K. Biswas, Jens Peter Christensen

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Bangladesh faced two epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in two consecutive years. The peaks of the waves were observed in February-July 2007 and January-April 2008, respectively. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the 293 outbreaks in 143 subdistricts in 2007 and 2008. Global clustering assessed by K-function was seen at distances 150-300 km between subdistricts. Significant local clusters were detected by space-time scan statistics. In both waves, significant primary clusters of HPAI outbreaks were identified in the central part of the country dominated by commercial production systems and in the northwestern part primarily in backyard production systems. Secondary clusters varied from the northwestern part in 2007 and the southern part in 2008. The findings are highly relevant for the successful planning and implementation of control, prevention and surveillance strategies by highlighting areas where detailed investigations should be initiated.

Original language	English
Journal	Epidemiology and Infection
Volume	138
Issue number	6
Pages (from-to)	843-852
Number of pages	10
ISSN	0950-2688
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268810000178
Publication status	Published - Jun 2010

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title = "Space-time clustering of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in Bangladesh",

abstract = "Bangladesh faced two epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in two consecutive years. The peaks of the waves were observed in February-July 2007 and January-April 2008, respectively. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the 293 outbreaks in 143 subdistricts in 2007 and 2008. Global clustering assessed by K-function was seen at distances 150-300 km between subdistricts. Significant local clusters were detected by space-time scan statistics. In both waves, significant primary clusters of HPAI outbreaks were identified in the central part of the country dominated by commercial production systems and in the northwestern part primarily in backyard production systems. Secondary clusters varied from the northwestern part in 2007 and the southern part in 2008. The findings are highly relevant for the successful planning and implementation of control, prevention and surveillance strategies by highlighting areas where detailed investigations should be initiated.",

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T1 - Space-time clustering of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in Bangladesh

AU - Ahmed, S.S.U.

AU - Ersbøll, Annette Kjær

AU - Biswas, P.K.

AU - Christensen, Jens Peter

PY - 2010/6

Y1 - 2010/6

N2 - Bangladesh faced two epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in two consecutive years. The peaks of the waves were observed in February-July 2007 and January-April 2008, respectively. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the 293 outbreaks in 143 subdistricts in 2007 and 2008. Global clustering assessed by K-function was seen at distances 150-300 km between subdistricts. Significant local clusters were detected by space-time scan statistics. In both waves, significant primary clusters of HPAI outbreaks were identified in the central part of the country dominated by commercial production systems and in the northwestern part primarily in backyard production systems. Secondary clusters varied from the northwestern part in 2007 and the southern part in 2008. The findings are highly relevant for the successful planning and implementation of control, prevention and surveillance strategies by highlighting areas where detailed investigations should be initiated.

AB - Bangladesh faced two epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in two consecutive years. The peaks of the waves were observed in February-July 2007 and January-April 2008, respectively. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the 293 outbreaks in 143 subdistricts in 2007 and 2008. Global clustering assessed by K-function was seen at distances 150-300 km between subdistricts. Significant local clusters were detected by space-time scan statistics. In both waves, significant primary clusters of HPAI outbreaks were identified in the central part of the country dominated by commercial production systems and in the northwestern part primarily in backyard production systems. Secondary clusters varied from the northwestern part in 2007 and the southern part in 2008. The findings are highly relevant for the successful planning and implementation of control, prevention and surveillance strategies by highlighting areas where detailed investigations should be initiated.

U2 - 10.1017/s0950268810000178

DO - 10.1017/s0950268810000178

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 20109257

SN - 0950-2688

VL - 138

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EP - 852

JO - Epidemiology and Infection

JF - Epidemiology and Infection

IS - 6

ER -

Space-time clustering of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in Bangladesh

Abstract

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