Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe

Soren Saxmose Nielsen; Julio Alvarez; Dominique Bicout; Paolo Calistri; Klaus Depner; Julian Ashley Drewe; Bruno Garin-Bastuji; Jose Luis Gonzales Rojas; Virginie Michel; Miguel Angel Miranda; Helen Roberts; Liisa Sihvonen; Hans Spoolder; Karl Stahl; Arvo Viltrop; Christoph Winckler; Anette Boklund; Anette Botner; Simon J. More; Hans-Hermann Thulke; Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou; Jose Cortinas Abrahantes; Sofie Dhollander; Andrey Gogin; Alexandra Papanikolaou; Laura C. Gonzalez Villeta; Christian Gortazar Schmidt

doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe

Soren Saxmose Nielsen, Julio Alvarez, Dominique Bicout, Paolo Calistri, Klaus Depner, Julian Ashley Drewe, Bruno Garin-Bastuji, Jose Luis Gonzales Rojas, Virginie Michel, Miguel Angel Miranda, Helen Roberts, Liisa Sihvonen, Hans Spoolder, Karl Stahl, Arvo Viltrop, Christoph Winckler, Anette Boklund, Anette Botner, Simon J. More, Hans-Hermann ThulkeSotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Jose Cortinas Abrahantes, Sofie Dhollander, Andrey Gogin, Alexandra Papanikolaou, Laura C. Gonzalez Villeta, Christian Gortazar Schmidt

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) – Croatia, Greece and Slovenia – were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

Original language	English
Publication date	1 Nov 2019
Volume	17
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2019

Keywords

African Swine Fever
risk
spread
south-eastern Europe

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10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861Licence: CC BY-ND

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Nielsen, S. S., Alvarez, J., Bicout, D., Calistri, P., Depner, K., Drewe, J. A., Garin-Bastuji, B., Rojas, J. L. G., Michel, V., Miranda, M. A., Roberts, H., Sihvonen, L., Spoolder, H., Stahl, K., Viltrop, A., Winckler, C., Boklund, A., Botner, A., More, S. J., ... Schmidt, C. G. (2019, Nov 1). Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861

Nielsen, SS, Alvarez, J, Bicout, D, Calistri, P, Depner, K, Drewe, JA, Garin-Bastuji, B, Rojas, JLG, Michel, V, Miranda, MA, Roberts, H, Sihvonen, L, Spoolder, H, Stahl, K, Viltrop, A, Winckler, C, Boklund, A , Botner, A, More, SJ, Thulke, H-H, Antoniou, S-E, Abrahantes, JC, Dhollander, S, Gogin, A, Papanikolaou, A, Villeta, LCG & Schmidt, CG 2019, Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861

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title = "Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe",

abstract = "The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) – Croatia, Greece and Slovenia – were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.",

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AU - Nielsen, Soren Saxmose

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AU - Bicout, Dominique

AU - Calistri, Paolo

AU - Depner, Klaus

AU - Drewe, Julian Ashley

AU - Garin-Bastuji, Bruno

AU - Rojas, Jose Luis Gonzales

AU - Michel, Virginie

AU - Miranda, Miguel Angel

AU - Roberts, Helen

AU - Sihvonen, Liisa

AU - Spoolder, Hans

AU - Stahl, Karl

AU - Viltrop, Arvo

AU - Winckler, Christoph

AU - Boklund, Anette

AU - Botner, Anette

AU - More, Simon J.

AU - Thulke, Hans-Hermann

AU - Antoniou, Sotiria-Eleni

AU - Abrahantes, Jose Cortinas

AU - Dhollander, Sofie

AU - Gogin, Andrey

AU - Papanikolaou, Alexandra

AU - Villeta, Laura C. Gonzalez

AU - Schmidt, Christian Gortazar

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N2 - The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) – Croatia, Greece and Slovenia – were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

AB - The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) – Croatia, Greece and Slovenia – were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.

KW - African Swine Fever

KW - risk

KW - spread

KW - south-eastern Europe

U2 - 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861

DO - 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861

M3 - Other contribution

C2 - 32626162

VL - 17

ER -

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe

Abstract

Keywords

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