Protecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments

Eleanor M. Warren-Thomas; David P. Edwards; Daniel P. Bebber; Phourin Chhang; Alex N. Diment; Tom D. Evans; Frances H. Lambrick; James F. Maxwell; Menghor Nut; Hannah J. O'Kelly; Ida Theilade; Paul M. Dolman

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03287-9

Protecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments

Eleanor M. Warren-Thomas^*, David P. Edwards, Daniel P. Bebber, Phourin Chhang, Alex N. Diment, Tom D. Evans, Frances H. Lambrick, James F. Maxwell, Menghor Nut, Hannah J. O'Kelly, Ida Theilade, Paul M. Dolman

^*Corresponding author for this work

Section for Global Development

32 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

Expansion of Hevea brasiliensis rubber plantations is a resurgent driver of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian rubber extent is massive, equivalent to 67% of oil palm, with rapid further expansion predicted. Results-based carbon finance could dis-incentivise forest conversion to rubber, but efficacy will be limited unless payments match, or at least approach, the costs of avoided deforestation. These include opportunity costs (timber and rubber profits), plus carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Using comprehensive Cambodian forest data, exploring scenarios of selective logging and conversion, and assuming land-use choice is based on net present value, we find that carbon prices of $30-$51 per tCO₂ are needed to break even against costs, higher than those currently paid on carbon markets or through carbon funds. To defend forests from rubber, either carbon prices must be increased, or other strategies are needed, such as corporate zero-deforestation pledges, and governmental regulation and enforcement of forest protection.

Original language	English
Article number	911
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	9
Issue number	1
Pages (from-to)	1-12
ISSN	2041-1723
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-03287-9
Publication status	Published - 2018

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title = "Protecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments",

abstract = "Expansion of Hevea brasiliensis rubber plantations is a resurgent driver of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian rubber extent is massive, equivalent to 67% of oil palm, with rapid further expansion predicted. Results-based carbon finance could dis-incentivise forest conversion to rubber, but efficacy will be limited unless payments match, or at least approach, the costs of avoided deforestation. These include opportunity costs (timber and rubber profits), plus carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Using comprehensive Cambodian forest data, exploring scenarios of selective logging and conversion, and assuming land-use choice is based on net present value, we find that carbon prices of $30-$51 per tCO2 are needed to break even against costs, higher than those currently paid on carbon markets or through carbon funds. To defend forests from rubber, either carbon prices must be increased, or other strategies are needed, such as corporate zero-deforestation pledges, and governmental regulation and enforcement of forest protection.",

author = "Warren-Thomas, {Eleanor M.} and Edwards, {David P.} and Bebber, {Daniel P.} and Phourin Chhang and Diment, {Alex N.} and Evans, {Tom D.} and Lambrick, {Frances H.} and Maxwell, {James F.} and Menghor Nut and O'Kelly, {Hannah J.} and Ida Theilade and Dolman, {Paul M.}",

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AU - Evans, Tom D.

AU - Lambrick, Frances H.

AU - Maxwell, James F.

AU - Nut, Menghor

AU - O'Kelly, Hannah J.

AU - Theilade, Ida

AU - Dolman, Paul M.

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N2 - Expansion of Hevea brasiliensis rubber plantations is a resurgent driver of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian rubber extent is massive, equivalent to 67% of oil palm, with rapid further expansion predicted. Results-based carbon finance could dis-incentivise forest conversion to rubber, but efficacy will be limited unless payments match, or at least approach, the costs of avoided deforestation. These include opportunity costs (timber and rubber profits), plus carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Using comprehensive Cambodian forest data, exploring scenarios of selective logging and conversion, and assuming land-use choice is based on net present value, we find that carbon prices of $30-$51 per tCO2 are needed to break even against costs, higher than those currently paid on carbon markets or through carbon funds. To defend forests from rubber, either carbon prices must be increased, or other strategies are needed, such as corporate zero-deforestation pledges, and governmental regulation and enforcement of forest protection.

AB - Expansion of Hevea brasiliensis rubber plantations is a resurgent driver of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian rubber extent is massive, equivalent to 67% of oil palm, with rapid further expansion predicted. Results-based carbon finance could dis-incentivise forest conversion to rubber, but efficacy will be limited unless payments match, or at least approach, the costs of avoided deforestation. These include opportunity costs (timber and rubber profits), plus carbon finance scheme setup (transaction) and implementation costs. Using comprehensive Cambodian forest data, exploring scenarios of selective logging and conversion, and assuming land-use choice is based on net present value, we find that carbon prices of $30-$51 per tCO2 are needed to break even against costs, higher than those currently paid on carbon markets or through carbon funds. To defend forests from rubber, either carbon prices must be increased, or other strategies are needed, such as corporate zero-deforestation pledges, and governmental regulation and enforcement of forest protection.

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Protecting tropical forests from the rapid expansion of rubber using carbon payments

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