Prediction of Dansgaard-Oeschger Events From Greenland Dust Records

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of Dansgaard-Oeschger Events From Greenland Dust Records

AU - Lohmann, Johannes

PY - 2019/11/16

Y1 - 2019/11/16

N2 - The Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the last glacial period are attributed to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation. An outstanding problem is whether these are driven by a self-sustained oscillation of the Earth system, by stochastic perturbations in terms of freshwater discharges into the ocean or extremes in atmospheric dynamics, or by another driver. Their complex temporal pattern suggests that the transitions in between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) phases are noise induced and thus unpredictable. Here, evidence is presented that this is unlikely because the transitions can be predicted to a certain degree within a few hundred years after stadial onset from consistent trends in Greenland dust proxies. These trends could be a manifestation of the climate system reorganizing at a specific timescale. What physically determines these highly variable timescales remains unexplained. Nevertheless, constraining the dynamics underlying these abrupt climate changes is an important step to uncover their causes.

AB - The Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles of the last glacial period are attributed to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation. An outstanding problem is whether these are driven by a self-sustained oscillation of the Earth system, by stochastic perturbations in terms of freshwater discharges into the ocean or extremes in atmospheric dynamics, or by another driver. Their complex temporal pattern suggests that the transitions in between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) phases are noise induced and thus unpredictable. Here, evidence is presented that this is unlikely because the transitions can be predicted to a certain degree within a few hundred years after stadial onset from consistent trends in Greenland dust proxies. These trends could be a manifestation of the climate system reorganizing at a specific timescale. What physically determines these highly variable timescales remains unexplained. Nevertheless, constraining the dynamics underlying these abrupt climate changes is an important step to uncover their causes.

KW - Dansgaard-Oeschger events

KW - abrupt climate change

KW - millennial-scale climate variability

KW - ice cores

KW - Greenland

U2 - 10.1029/2019GL085133

DO - 10.1029/2019GL085133

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1944-8007

JO - Geophysical Research Letters (Online)

JF - Geophysical Research Letters (Online)

ER -