Predicting tail biting and diarrhea amongst growing pigs from drinking patterns: An evaluation of the predictive performances of volume and drinking frequencies

TY - GEN

T1 - Predicting tail biting and diarrhea amongst growing pigs from drinking patterns

T2 - 9th European Conference on Precision Livestock Farming, ECPLF 2019

AU - Dominiak, K. N.

AU - Hindsborg, J.

AU - Kristensen, A. R.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - Based on changes in their drinking patterns, predictions of tail biting and diarrhea amongst growing pigs were generated and evaluated. A spatial, multivariate dynamic linear model was used to model simultaneously monitored drinking patterns across multiple pens in a section of weaners, and across multiple pens in a section of finishers. Both volume (litres/hour) and frequency (bouts/hour) were monitored and modelled. The predictive performances of the two sets of data were evaluated separately for both weaners and finishers using a two-sided tabular CUSUM. Time windows, including 24 hours and 48 hours before the day of the event, were applied and the predictive performances were reported as Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). Generally, the predictive performances were high for both volume and frequency (Tail biting finishers: AUC = 0.79 - 0.88, Tail biting weaners: AUC = 0.89 - 0.92). For finishers (30-110 kg), frequency (bouts/hour) was a better predictor of outbreaks of both tail biting and diarrhea as well as either of the events given either time window. For weaners (7- 30 kg), however, the performances for predicting tail biting were equally high for volume and frequency given either length of the time window. For the prediction of diarrhea or either of the events, the performances were also close to equal between volume (litres/hour) and frequency (bouts/hour) but they differed between the two lengths of time windows. In conclusion, frequency tends to be a better predictor of events amongst finishers, whereas the differences in predictive performances between volume and frequency were less distinct amongst weaners.

AB - Based on changes in their drinking patterns, predictions of tail biting and diarrhea amongst growing pigs were generated and evaluated. A spatial, multivariate dynamic linear model was used to model simultaneously monitored drinking patterns across multiple pens in a section of weaners, and across multiple pens in a section of finishers. Both volume (litres/hour) and frequency (bouts/hour) were monitored and modelled. The predictive performances of the two sets of data were evaluated separately for both weaners and finishers using a two-sided tabular CUSUM. Time windows, including 24 hours and 48 hours before the day of the event, were applied and the predictive performances were reported as Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). Generally, the predictive performances were high for both volume and frequency (Tail biting finishers: AUC = 0.79 - 0.88, Tail biting weaners: AUC = 0.89 - 0.92). For finishers (30-110 kg), frequency (bouts/hour) was a better predictor of outbreaks of both tail biting and diarrhea as well as either of the events given either time window. For weaners (7- 30 kg), however, the performances for predicting tail biting were equally high for volume and frequency given either length of the time window. For the prediction of diarrhea or either of the events, the performances were also close to equal between volume (litres/hour) and frequency (bouts/hour) but they differed between the two lengths of time windows. In conclusion, frequency tends to be a better predictor of events amongst finishers, whereas the differences in predictive performances between volume and frequency were less distinct amongst weaners.

KW - Drinking frequency

KW - Drinking volume

KW - Dynamic linear model

KW - Multivariate

KW - Prediction

KW - Tail biting

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85073710953&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article in proceedings

T3 - Precision Livestock Farming 2019 - Papers Presented at the 9th European Conference on Precision Livestock Farming, ECPLF 2019

SP - 511

EP - 517

BT - Precision Livestock Farming 2019

A2 - O'Brien, Bernadette

A2 - Hennessy, Deirdre

A2 - Shalloo, Laurence

PB - Organising Committee of the 9th European Conference on Precision Livestock Farming (ECPLF), Teagasc, Animal and Grassland Research and Innovation Centre

Y2 - 26 August 2019 through 29 August 2019

ER -