Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

TY - JOUR

T1 - Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

AU - Daanen, R. P.

AU - Ingeman-Nielsen, T.

AU - Marchenko, S. S.

AU - Romanovsky, V. E.

AU - Foged, N.

AU - Stendel, M.

AU - Christensen, J. H.

AU - Hornbech Svendsen, K.

PY - 2011/11/30

Y1 - 2011/11/30

N2 - In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.

AB - In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=82155192855&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5194/tc-5-1043-2011

DO - 10.5194/tc-5-1043-2011

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:82155192855

SN - 1994-0416

VL - 5

SP - 1043

EP - 1056

JO - Cryosphere

JF - Cryosphere

IS - 4

ER -