Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

Rasoul Yousefpour; Markus Didion; Jette Bredahl Jacobsen; Henrik Meilby; Geerten M. Hengeveld; Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Bo Jellesmark Thorsen

doi:10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002

Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

Rasoul Yousefpour, Markus Didion, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, Henrik Meilby, Geerten M. Hengeveld, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Bo Jellesmark Thorsen

Section for Environment and Natural Resources

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.

Original language	English
Journal	Forest Policy and Economics
Volume	54
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	10
ISSN	1389-9341
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002
Publication status	Published - 2015

Keywords

Bayesian updating
Behaviour of decision-makers
Efficient beliefs
Adaptive management
Multivariate distribution

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002

Cite this

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title = "Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands",

abstract = "We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.",

keywords = "Bayesian updating, Behaviour of decision-makers, Efficient beliefs, Adaptive management, Multivariate distribution",

author = "Rasoul Yousefpour and Markus Didion and Jacobsen, {Jette Bredahl} and Henrik Meilby and Hengeveld, {Geerten M.} and Mart-Jan Schelhaas and Thorsen, {Bo Jellesmark}",

year = "2015",

doi = "10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002",

language = "English",

volume = "54",

pages = "1--10",

journal = "Forest Policy and Economics",

issn = "1389-9341",

publisher = "Elsevier",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

AU - Yousefpour, Rasoul

AU - Didion, Markus

AU - Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

AU - Meilby, Henrik

AU - Hengeveld, Geerten M.

AU - Schelhaas, Mart-Jan

AU - Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.

AB - We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time and mostly differ from deterministic decisions ignoring any change in climate. Moreover, we find that the adaptation strategies are indispensable not only because of climate change but also because of the development of the forest biological system over time and the need to revisit decisions.

KW - Bayesian updating

KW - Behaviour of decision-makers

KW - Efficient beliefs

KW - Adaptive management

KW - Multivariate distribution

U2 - 10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002

DO - 10.1016/j.forpol.2015.02.002

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1389-9341

VL - 54

SP - 1

EP - 10

JO - Forest Policy and Economics

JF - Forest Policy and Economics

ER -

Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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