Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Susan M. Natali; Jennifer D.  Watts; Brendan M. Rogers; Stefano  Potter; Sarah M.  Ludwig; Anne-Katrin  Selbmann; Patrick F.  Sullivan; Benjamin W. Abbott; Kyle A.  Arndt; Leah  Birch; Mats P. Björkman; A. Anthony  Bloom; Gerardo  Celis; Torben R. Christensen; Casper T. Christiansen; Roisin Commane; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Patrick Crill; Claudia Czimczik; Sergey P. Davydov; Jinyang  Du; Jocelyn E.  Egan; Bo Elberling; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Thomas Friborg; Hélène  Genet; Mathias Göckede; Jordan P.  Goodrich; Paul Grogan; Manuel Helbig; Elchin E. Jafarov; Julie D.  Jastrow; Aram A. M.  Kalhori; Yongwon  Kim; John S. Kimball; Lars Kutzbach; J. Mark Lara; Klaus Steenberg Larsen; Bang-Yong  Lee; Zhihua  Liu; Michael M.  Loranty; Magnus Lund; Massimo  Lupascu; Nima  Madani; Avni  Malhotra; Roser  Matamala; Jack McFarland; A. David  McGuire; Anders Michelsen; Christina  Minions; Walter C. Oechel; David Olefeldt; Frans-Jan W. Parmentier; Norbert Pirk; Ben Poulter; William Quinton; Fereidoun  Rezanezhad; David  Risk; Torsten Sachs; Kevin Schaefer; Niels M. Schmidt; Edward A.G. Schuur; Philipp R. Semenchuk; Gaius R. Shaver; Oliver Sonnentag; Gregory Starr; Claire C.  Treat; Mark P. Waldrop; Yihui  Wang; Jeffrey M. Welker; Christian Wille; Xiaofeng Xue; Zhen Zhang; Qianlai Zhuang; Donatella Zona

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Susan M. Natali, Jennifer D. Watts, Brendan M. Rogers, Stefano Potter, Sarah M. Ludwig, Anne-Katrin Selbmann, Patrick F. Sullivan, Benjamin W. Abbott, Kyle A. Arndt, Leah Birch, Mats P. Björkman, A. Anthony Bloom, Gerardo Celis, Torben R. Christensen, Casper T. Christiansen, Roisin Commane, Elisabeth J. Cooper, Patrick Crill, Claudia Czimczik, Sergey P. DavydovJinyang Du, Jocelyn E. Egan, Bo Elberling, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Hélène Genet, Mathias Göckede, Jordan P. Goodrich, Paul Grogan, Manuel Helbig, Elchin E. Jafarov, Julie D. Jastrow, Aram A. M. Kalhori, Yongwon Kim, John S. Kimball, Lars Kutzbach, J. Mark Lara, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, Bang-Yong Lee, Zhihua Liu, Michael M. Loranty, Magnus Lund, Massimo Lupascu, Nima Madani, Avni Malhotra, Roser Matamala, Jack McFarland, A. David McGuire, Anders Michelsen, Christina Minions, Walter C. Oechel, David Olefeldt, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Norbert Pirk, Ben Poulter, William Quinton, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, David Risk, Torsten Sachs, Kevin Schaefer, Niels M. Schmidt, Edward A.G. Schuur, Philipp R. Semenchuk, Gaius R. Shaver, Oliver Sonnentag, Gregory Starr, Claire C. Treat, Mark P. Waldrop, Yihui Wang, Jeffrey M. Welker, Christian Wille, Xiaofeng Xue, Zhen Zhang, Qianlai Zhuang, Donatella Zona

53 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter^1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO₂)⁴. However, the amount of CO₂ released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates^5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO₂ flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO₂ emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO₂ emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO₂ loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Original language	English
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	9
Pages (from-to)	852-857
Number of pages	6
ISSN	1758-678X
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
Publication status	Published - 1 Nov 2019

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Cite this

Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Rogers, B. M., Potter, S., Ludwig, S. M., Selbmann, A.-K., Sullivan, P. F., Abbott, B. W., Arndt, K. A., Birch, L., Björkman, M. P., Bloom, A. A., Celis, G., Christensen, T. R., Christiansen, C. T., Commane, R., Cooper, E. J., Crill, P., Czimczik, C., ... Zona, D. (2019). Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region. Nature Climate Change, 9, 852-857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

Natali, SM, Watts, JD, Rogers, BM, Potter, S, Ludwig, SM, Selbmann, A-K, Sullivan, PF, Abbott, BW, Arndt, KA, Birch, L, Björkman, MP, Bloom, AA, Celis, G, Christensen, TR, Christiansen, CT, Commane, R, Cooper, EJ, Crill, P, Czimczik, C, Davydov, SP, Du, J, Egan, JE, Elberling, B, Euskirchen, ES, Friborg, T, Genet, H, Göckede, M, Goodrich, JP, Grogan, P, Helbig, M, Jafarov, EE, Jastrow, JD, Kalhori, AAM, Kim, Y, Kimball, JS, Kutzbach, L, Lara, JM, Larsen, KS, Lee, B-Y, Liu, Z, Loranty, MM, Lund, M, Lupascu, M, Madani, N, Malhotra, A, Matamala, R, McFarland, J, McGuire, AD, Michelsen, A, Minions, C, Oechel, WC, Olefeldt, D, Parmentier, F-JW, Pirk, N, Poulter, B, Quinton, W, Rezanezhad, F, Risk, D, Sachs, T, Schaefer, K, M. Schmidt, N, Schuur, EAG, Semenchuk, PR, Shaver, GR, Sonnentag, O, Starr, G, Treat, CC, Waldrop, MP, Wang, Y, Welker, JM, Wille, C, Xue, X, Zhang, Z, Zhuang, Q & Zona, D 2019, 'Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, pp. 852-857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

@article{b3946fa97d164314aaff76e89ed1bc10,

title = "Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region",

abstract = "Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.",

author = "Natali, {Susan M.} and Watts, {Jennifer D.} and Rogers, {Brendan M.} and Stefano Potter and Ludwig, {Sarah M.} and Anne-Katrin Selbmann and Sullivan, {Patrick F.} and Abbott, {Benjamin W.} and Arndt, {Kyle A.} and Leah Birch and Bj{\"o}rkman, {Mats P.} and Bloom, {A. Anthony} and Gerardo Celis and Christensen, {Torben R.} and Christiansen, {Casper T.} and Roisin Commane and Cooper, {Elisabeth J.} and Patrick Crill and Claudia Czimczik and Davydov, {Sergey P.} and Jinyang Du and Egan, {Jocelyn E.} and Bo Elberling and Euskirchen, {Eugenie S.} and Thomas Friborg and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Genet and Mathias G{\"o}ckede and Goodrich, {Jordan P.} and Paul Grogan and Manuel Helbig and Jafarov, {Elchin E.} and Jastrow, {Julie D.} and Kalhori, {Aram A. M.} and Yongwon Kim and Kimball, {John S.} and Lars Kutzbach and Lara, {J. Mark} and Larsen, {Klaus Steenberg} and Bang-Yong Lee and Zhihua Liu and Loranty, {Michael M.} and Magnus Lund and Massimo Lupascu and Nima Madani and Avni Malhotra and Roser Matamala and Jack McFarland and McGuire, {A. David} and Anders Michelsen and Christina Minions and Oechel, {Walter C.} and David Olefeldt and Parmentier, {Frans-Jan W.} and Norbert Pirk and Ben Poulter and William Quinton and Fereidoun Rezanezhad and David Risk and Torsten Sachs and Kevin Schaefer and {M. Schmidt}, Niels and Schuur, {Edward A.G.} and Semenchuk, {Philipp R.} and Shaver, {Gaius R.} and Oliver Sonnentag and Gregory Starr and Treat, {Claire C.} and Waldrop, {Mark P.} and Yihui Wang and Welker, {Jeffrey M.} and Christian Wille and Xiaofeng Xue and Zhen Zhang and Qianlai Zhuang and Donatella Zona",

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journal = "Nature Climate Change",

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T1 - Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

AU - Natali, Susan M.

AU - Watts, Jennifer D.

AU - Rogers, Brendan M.

AU - Potter, Stefano

AU - Ludwig, Sarah M.

AU - Selbmann, Anne-Katrin

AU - Sullivan, Patrick F.

AU - Abbott, Benjamin W.

AU - Arndt, Kyle A.

AU - Birch, Leah

AU - Björkman, Mats P.

AU - Bloom, A. Anthony

AU - Celis, Gerardo

AU - Christensen, Torben R.

AU - Christiansen, Casper T.

AU - Commane, Roisin

AU - Cooper, Elisabeth J.

AU - Crill, Patrick

AU - Czimczik, Claudia

AU - Davydov, Sergey P.

AU - Du, Jinyang

AU - Egan, Jocelyn E.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Euskirchen, Eugenie S.

AU - Friborg, Thomas

AU - Genet, Hélène

AU - Göckede, Mathias

AU - Goodrich, Jordan P.

AU - Grogan, Paul

AU - Helbig, Manuel

AU - Jafarov, Elchin E.

AU - Jastrow, Julie D.

AU - Kalhori, Aram A. M.

AU - Kim, Yongwon

AU - Kimball, John S.

AU - Kutzbach, Lars

AU - Lara, J. Mark

AU - Larsen, Klaus Steenberg

AU - Lee, Bang-Yong

AU - Liu, Zhihua

AU - Loranty, Michael M.

AU - Lund, Magnus

AU - Lupascu, Massimo

AU - Madani, Nima

AU - Malhotra, Avni

AU - Matamala, Roser

AU - McFarland, Jack

AU - McGuire, A. David

AU - Michelsen, Anders

AU - Minions, Christina

AU - Oechel, Walter C.

AU - Olefeldt, David

AU - Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.

AU - Pirk, Norbert

AU - Poulter, Ben

AU - Quinton, William

AU - Rezanezhad, Fereidoun

AU - Risk, David

AU - Sachs, Torsten

AU - Schaefer, Kevin

AU - M. Schmidt, Niels

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Semenchuk, Philipp R.

AU - Shaver, Gaius R.

AU - Sonnentag, Oliver

AU - Starr, Gregory

AU - Treat, Claire C.

AU - Waldrop, Mark P.

AU - Wang, Yihui

AU - Welker, Jeffrey M.

AU - Wille, Christian

AU - Xue, Xiaofeng

AU - Zhang, Zhen

AU - Zhuang, Qianlai

AU - Zona, Donatella

N1 - CENPERM[2019]

PY - 2019/11/1

Y1 - 2019/11/1

N2 - Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

AB - Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

M3 - Letter

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 9

SP - 852

EP - 857

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change