TY - RPRT
T1 - Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes
T2 - (Deliverable No: 11.2: / EC Contract Ref: FP7-ENV-2010-265104)
AU - Kuemmerle, Tobias
AU - Stürck, Julia
AU - Levers, Christian
AU - Müller, Daniel
AU - Erb, Karlheinz
AU - Gingrich, Simone
AU - Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck
AU - Kastner, Thomas
AU - Verkerk, Pieter Johannes
AU - Verburg, Peter H.
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land
systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios
(module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process
together with stakeholders. Within WP11, deliverable 11.2 documents three analyses carried out
to interpret the scenario outcomes in light of the insights gained from studying recent and longterm
land use change (module PROCESSES): (1) a delineation and mapping of high-level,
typical land change trajectories; (2) an assessment of future developments of current land change
archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system
trajectories.
Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was
relatively similar across marker scenarios and different policy alternatives, for many regions in
Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a)
between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for
contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification of
agriculture were projected to be particularly strong in a world with fewer interventions. Nature
protection schemes as well as payments for ecosystem services were the most effective policy
alternatives constraining future agricultural intensification. Fourth, land systems will likely
continue to become more polarized with intensified production and abandonment of marginal
areas continuing. Fifth, future land changes were projected to be well within the range of longterm
historic land system changes. Finally, modelled scenarios generally suggest gradual, though
not always linear future land system trends, overall rather indicating a continuation of prevailing
management regimes rather than drastic regime shifts.
AB - Module VISIONS seeks to identify critical pathways to reach desired futures for land
systems (i.e., visions). In order to do so, work package (WP) 11 links the model-based scenarios
(module ASSESSMENT) to the visions formulated derived in a transdisciplinary process
together with stakeholders. Within WP11, deliverable 11.2 documents three analyses carried out
to interpret the scenario outcomes in light of the insights gained from studying recent and longterm
land use change (module PROCESSES): (1) a delineation and mapping of high-level,
typical land change trajectories; (2) an assessment of future developments of current land change
archetypes; and (3) an interpretation of future land change in light of long-term land system
trajectories.
Synthesizing across these analyses, six key insights emerged. First, future land change was
relatively similar across marker scenarios and different policy alternatives, for many regions in
Europe, suggesting strong path dependency. Second, the impact of policy options can differ (a)
between regions in Europe and (b) among marker scenarios, highlighting the need for
contextualized, regionalized policy making. Third, the expansion and intensification of
agriculture were projected to be particularly strong in a world with fewer interventions. Nature
protection schemes as well as payments for ecosystem services were the most effective policy
alternatives constraining future agricultural intensification. Fourth, land systems will likely
continue to become more polarized with intensified production and abandonment of marginal
areas continuing. Fifth, future land changes were projected to be well within the range of longterm
historic land system changes. Finally, modelled scenarios generally suggest gradual, though
not always linear future land system trends, overall rather indicating a continuation of prevailing
management regimes rather than drastic regime shifts.
M3 - Report
BT - Interpretation of scenario results in terms of described and mapped land change trajectories and archetypes
PB - VOLANTE
ER -
