Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate

TY - JOUR

T1 - Intensification of extreme European summer precipitation in a warmer climate

AU - Christensen, O. B.

AU - Christensen, J. H.

PY - 2004/12/1

Y1 - 2004/12/1

N2 - Heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes with subsequent surface runoff can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of such events could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Impacts of climate warming on severe precipitation events in Europe on a diurnal time scale were investigated with a high-resolution regional climate model for two of the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic, N., et al., 2000, IPCC special report on emission scenarios, 599 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK). A series of 30-year time slice experiments were conducted for periods representing the present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100). The large-scale initial and lateral boundary conditions were imposed from two different global models both originating from fully transient climate change simulations. Here, we show that although the summer time precipitation decreases over a substantial part of Europe in the scenarios analysed, an increase in the amount of precipitation exceeding the present-day 99th and in most cases even the 95th percentile is found for large areas. An analysis of daily precipitation over the entire European river catchments confirms this observation.

AB - Heavy and/or extended precipitation episodes with subsequent surface runoff can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of such events could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. Impacts of climate warming on severe precipitation events in Europe on a diurnal time scale were investigated with a high-resolution regional climate model for two of the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Nakicenovic, N., et al., 2000, IPCC special report on emission scenarios, 599 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK). A series of 30-year time slice experiments were conducted for periods representing the present (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100). The large-scale initial and lateral boundary conditions were imposed from two different global models both originating from fully transient climate change simulations. Here, we show that although the summer time precipitation decreases over a substantial part of Europe in the scenarios analysed, an increase in the amount of precipitation exceeding the present-day 99th and in most cases even the 95th percentile is found for large areas. An analysis of daily precipitation over the entire European river catchments confirms this observation.

KW - Climate model

KW - Greenhouse gas

KW - Precipitation episodes

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=9944257596&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.013

DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.013

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:9944257596

SN - 0031-0182

VL - 44

SP - 107

EP - 117

JO - Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology - An International Journal for the Geo-Sciences

JF - Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology - An International Journal for the Geo-Sciences

IS - 1-4

ER -