Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud–cloud interaction

TY - JOUR

T1 - Intensification of convective extremes driven by cloud–cloud interaction

AU - Moseley, C.

AU - Hohenegger, Cathy

AU - Berg, Peter

AU - Härter, Jan Olaf Mirko

PY - 2016/9/30

Y1 - 2016/9/30

N2 - In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if convective precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to thermodynamic or dynamical processes. Here we perform large eddy simulations of convection by imposing a realistic diurnal cycle of surface temperature. We find convective events to gradually self-organize into larger cloud clusters and those events occurring late in the day to produce the highest precipitation intensities. Tracking rain cells throughout their life cycles, we show that events which result from collisions respond strongly to changes in boundary conditions, such as temperature changes. Conversely, events not resulting from collisions remain largely unaffected by the boundary conditions. Increased surface temperature indeed leads to more interaction between events and stronger precipitation extremes. However, comparable intensification occurs when leaving temperature unchanged but simply granting more time for self-organization. These findings imply that the convective field as a whole acquires a memory of past precipitation and inter-cloud dynamics, driving extremes. For global climate model projections, our results suggest that the interaction between convective clouds must be incorporated to simulate convective extremes and the diurnal cycle more realistically.

AB - In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if convective precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to thermodynamic or dynamical processes. Here we perform large eddy simulations of convection by imposing a realistic diurnal cycle of surface temperature. We find convective events to gradually self-organize into larger cloud clusters and those events occurring late in the day to produce the highest precipitation intensities. Tracking rain cells throughout their life cycles, we show that events which result from collisions respond strongly to changes in boundary conditions, such as temperature changes. Conversely, events not resulting from collisions remain largely unaffected by the boundary conditions. Increased surface temperature indeed leads to more interaction between events and stronger precipitation extremes. However, comparable intensification occurs when leaving temperature unchanged but simply granting more time for self-organization. These findings imply that the convective field as a whole acquires a memory of past precipitation and inter-cloud dynamics, driving extremes. For global climate model projections, our results suggest that the interaction between convective clouds must be incorporated to simulate convective extremes and the diurnal cycle more realistically.

U2 - 10.1038/NGEO2789

DO - 10.1038/NGEO2789

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1752-0894

VL - 9

SP - 748

EP - 752

JO - Nature Geoscience

JF - Nature Geoscience

IS - 10

ER -