Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

Jakob Runge; Sebastian Bathiany; Erik Bollt; Gustau Camps-Valls; Dim Coumou; Ethan Deyle; Clark Glymour; Marlene Kretschmer; Miguel D. Mahecha; Jordi Muñoz-Marí; Egbert H. van Nes; Jonas Peters; Rick Quax; Markus Reichstein; Marten Scheffer; Bernhard Schölkopf; Peter Spirtes; George Sugihara; Jie Sun; Kun Zhang; Jakob Zscheischler

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3

Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

Jakob Runge^*, Sebastian Bathiany, Erik Bollt, Gustau Camps-Valls, Dim Coumou, Ethan Deyle, Clark Glymour, Marlene Kretschmer, Miguel D. Mahecha, Jordi Muñoz-Marí, Egbert H. van Nes, Jonas Peters, Rick Quax, Markus Reichstein, Marten Scheffer, Bernhard Schölkopf, Peter Spirtes, George Sugihara, Jie Sun, Kun ZhangJakob Zscheischler

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Mathematical Sciences

75 Citations (Scopus)

22 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers.

Original language	English
Article number	2553
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	10
Issue number	1
Number of pages	13
ISSN	2041-1723
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3
Publication status	Published - 2019

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Runge, J., Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M., Mahecha, M. D., Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E. H., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J., ... Zscheischler, J. (2019). Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences. Nature Communications, 10(1), [2553]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3

Runge, J, Bathiany, S, Bollt, E, Camps-Valls, G, Coumou, D, Deyle, E, Glymour, C, Kretschmer, M, Mahecha, MD, Muñoz-Marí, J, van Nes, EH, Peters, J, Quax, R, Reichstein, M, Scheffer, M, Schölkopf, B, Spirtes, P, Sugihara, G, Sun, J, Zhang, K & Zscheischler, J 2019, 'Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences', Nature Communications, vol. 10, no. 1, 2553. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3

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Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

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