Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century

TY - JOUR

T1 - Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century

AU - Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas

AU - Bjørnsson, Anders Boding

AU - Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck

AU - Stendel, Martin

AU - Hansen, Birger

AU - Elberling, Bo

N1 - CENPERM[2015]

PY - 2015/4/5

Y1 - 2015/4/5

N2 - The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85. years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000. years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500. years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

AB - The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85. years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000. years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500. years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

KW - Climate changes

KW - Vegetation response

KW - TI-NDVI

KW - Biomass

KW - Sheep grazing

KW - Greenland

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 25679480

SN - 0048-9697

VL - 512–513

SP - 672

EP - 681

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

ER -