Greenland climate change: from the past to the future

Valérie Masson-Delmotte; Didier Swingedouw; Amaëlle Landais; Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz; Emilie Gauthier; Vincent Bichet; Charly Massa; Bianca Perren; Vincent Jornelli; Gudfinna Adalgeirsdottir; Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen; Jette Arneborg; Uma Bhatt; Donald A. Walker; Bo Elberling; Fabien Gillet-Chaulet; Catherine Ritz; Hubert Gallée; Michiel van den Broeke; Xavier Fettweis; Anne de Vernal; Bo Møllesøe Vinther

doi:10.1002/wcc.186

Greenland climate change: from the past to the future

Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Didier Swingedouw, Amaëlle Landais, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Emilie Gauthier, Vincent Bichet, Charly Massa, Bianca Perren, Vincent Jornelli, Gudfinna Adalgeirsdottir, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jette Arneborg, Uma Bhatt, Donald A. Walker, Bo Elberling, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Catherine Ritz, Hubert Gallée, Michiel van den Broeke, Xavier FettweisAnne de Vernal, Bo Møllesøe Vinther

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Abstract

Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts.

Original language	English
Journal	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change
Volume	3
Issue number	5
Pages (from-to)	427-449
Number of pages	23
ISSN	1757-7780
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.186
Publication status	Published - 2012

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Masson-Delmotte, V., Swingedouw, D., Landais, A., Seidenkrantz, M-S., Gauthier, E., Bichet, V., Massa, C., Perren, B., Jornelli, V., Adalgeirsdottir, G., Christensen, J. H., Arneborg, J., Bhatt, U., Walker, D. A., Elberling, B., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Ritz, C., Gallée, H., Broeke, M. V. D., ... Vinther, B. M. (2012). Greenland climate change: from the past to the future. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change, 3(5), 427-449. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.186

Masson-Delmotte, V, Swingedouw, D, Landais, A, Seidenkrantz, M-S, Gauthier, E, Bichet, V, Massa, C, Perren, B, Jornelli, V, Adalgeirsdottir, G, Christensen, JH, Arneborg, J, Bhatt, U, Walker, DA, Elberling, B, Gillet-Chaulet, F, Ritz, C, Gallée, H, Broeke, MVD, Fettweis, X, Vernal, AD & Vinther, BM 2012, 'Greenland climate change: from the past to the future', Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change, vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 427-449. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.186

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abstract = "Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts.",

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AU - Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

AU - Swingedouw, Didier

AU - Landais, Amaëlle

AU - Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig

AU - Gauthier, Emilie

AU - Bichet, Vincent

AU - Massa, Charly

AU - Perren, Bianca

AU - Jornelli, Vincent

AU - Adalgeirsdottir, Gudfinna

AU - Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

AU - Arneborg, Jette

AU - Bhatt, Uma

AU - Walker, Donald A.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien

AU - Ritz, Catherine

AU - Gallée, Hubert

AU - Broeke, Michiel van den

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Vernal, Anne de

AU - Vinther, Bo Møllesøe

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N2 - Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts.

AB - Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts.

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DO - 10.1002/wcc.186

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1757-7780

VL - 3

SP - 427

EP - 449

JO - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

JF - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

IS - 5

ER -

Greenland climate change: from the past to the future

Abstract

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