Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care

TY - JOUR

T1 - Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care

AU - Strömberg, Ulf

AU - Holmn, Anders

AU - Magnusson, Kerstin

AU - Twetman, Svante

PY - 2012/4/17

Y1 - 2012/4/17

N2 - Background: Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods: The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006) and 10,927 (2010) children between 3 to 6 years of age (~77% of the eligible population) from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region). Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI W ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results: The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs = 0) children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level) smoothed relative risks (SmRRs) increased from 1.76/0.44 = 4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33 = 7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parishlevel socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion: Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geomapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive care in child populations.

AB - Background: Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods: The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006) and 10,927 (2010) children between 3 to 6 years of age (~77% of the eligible population) from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region). Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI W ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results: The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs = 0) children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level) smoothed relative risks (SmRRs) increased from 1.76/0.44 = 4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33 = 7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parishlevel socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion: Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geomapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive care in child populations.

KW - Bayes Theorem

KW - Child

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - DMF Index

KW - Dental Caries

KW - Dental Caries Susceptibility

KW - Female

KW - Geographic Information Systems

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Prevalence

KW - Preventive Dentistry

KW - Risk Assessment

KW - Social Class

KW - Sweden

KW - Time Factors

U2 - 10.1186/1472-6831-12-9

DO - 10.1186/1472-6831-12-9

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 22510486

SN - 1472-6831

VL - 12

SP - 9

JO - BMC Oral Health

JF - BMC Oral Health

ER -