Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases

Rori V. Rohlfs; Vitor R C Aguiar; Kirk E. Lohmueller; Amanda M. Castro; Alessandro C S Ferreira; Vanessa C O Almeida; Iuri D. Louro; Rasmus Nielsen

doi:10.1016/j.fsigen.2015.05.005

Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases

Rori V. Rohlfs^*, Vitor R C Aguiar, Kirk E. Lohmueller, Amanda M. Castro, Alessandro C S Ferreira, Vanessa C O Almeida, Iuri D. Louro, Rasmus Nielsen

^*Corresponding author for this work

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how they result from inappropriate implementation of the Balding-Nichols model in the context of database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry.

Original language	English
Journal	Forensic Science International: Genetics
Volume	19
Pages (from-to)	86-91
Number of pages	6
ISSN	1872-4973
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2015.05.005
Publication status	Published - 16 Jul 2015

Keywords

Balding-Nichols model
DNA database
Partial match probability
Population genetics

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10.1016/j.fsigen.2015.05.005

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title = "Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases",

abstract = "Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how they result from inappropriate implementation of the Balding-Nichols model in the context of database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry.",

keywords = "Balding-Nichols model, DNA database, Partial match probability, Population genetics",

author = "Rohlfs, {Rori V.} and Aguiar, {Vitor R C} and Lohmueller, {Kirk E.} and Castro, {Amanda M.} and Ferreira, {Alessandro C S} and Almeida, {Vanessa C O} and Louro, {Iuri D.} and Rasmus Nielsen",

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doi = "10.1016/j.fsigen.2015.05.005",

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journal = "Forensic Science International: Genetics",

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T1 - Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases

AU - Rohlfs, Rori V.

AU - Aguiar, Vitor R C

AU - Lohmueller, Kirk E.

AU - Castro, Amanda M.

AU - Ferreira, Alessandro C S

AU - Almeida, Vanessa C O

AU - Louro, Iuri D.

AU - Nielsen, Rasmus

PY - 2015/7/16

Y1 - 2015/7/16

N2 - Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how they result from inappropriate implementation of the Balding-Nichols model in the context of database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry.

AB - Large forensic databases provide an opportunity to compare observed empirical rates of genotype matching with those expected under forensic genetic models. A number of researchers have taken advantage of this opportunity to validate some forensic genetic approaches, particularly to ensure that estimated rates of genotype matching between unrelated individuals are indeed slight overestimates of those observed. However, these studies have also revealed systematic error trends in genotype probability estimates. In this analysis, we investigate these error trends and show how they result from inappropriate implementation of the Balding-Nichols model in the context of database-wide matching. Specifically, we show that in addition to accounting for increased allelic matching between individuals with recent shared ancestry, studies must account for relatively decreased allelic matching between individuals with more ancient shared ancestry.

KW - Balding-Nichols model

KW - DNA database

KW - Partial match probability

KW - Population genetics

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Fitting the Balding-Nichols model to forensic databases

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Keywords

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