Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine

Karl Ulrich Petry; Kaatje Bollaerts; Paolo Bonanni; Margaret Stanley; Rosybel Drury; Elmar Joura; Susanne K. Kjaer; Chris J.L.M. Meijer; Didier Riethmuller; Benoit Soubeyrand; Pierre Van Damme; Xavier Bosch

doi:10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125

Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine

Karl Ulrich Petry, Kaatje Bollaerts^*, Paolo Bonanni, Margaret Stanley, Rosybel Drury, Elmar Joura, Susanne K. Kjaer, Chris J.L.M. Meijer, Didier Riethmuller, Benoit Soubeyrand, Pierre Van Damme, Xavier Bosch

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Clinical Medicine

6 Citations (Scopus)

25 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Background: The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. Objective: To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV naïve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. Methods: We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. Results: We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Conclusion: Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.

Original language	English
Journal	Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics
Volume	14
Issue number	7
Pages (from-to)	1800-1806
Number of pages	7
ISSN	2164-5515
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125
Publication status	Published - 2018

Keywords

cervical cancer
Human papillomavirus
human papillomavirus recombinant vaccine nonavalent
Types 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58, modelling
vaccination

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccineFinal published version, 1.07 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Petry, K. U., Bollaerts, K., Bonanni, P., Stanley, M., Drury, R., Joura, E., Kjaer, S. K., Meijer, C. J. L. M., Riethmuller, D., Soubeyrand, B., Van Damme, P., & Bosch, X. (2018). Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine. Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics, 14(7), 1800-1806. https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125

Petry, KU, Bollaerts, K, Bonanni, P, Stanley, M, Drury, R, Joura, E, Kjaer, SK, Meijer, CJLM, Riethmuller, D, Soubeyrand, B, Van Damme, P & Bosch, X 2018, 'Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine', Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics, vol. 14, no. 7, pp. 1800-1806. https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125

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title = "Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine",

abstract = "Background: The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. Objective: To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV na{\"i}ve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. Methods: We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. Results: We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Conclusion: Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.",

keywords = "cervical cancer, Human papillomavirus, human papillomavirus recombinant vaccine nonavalent, Types 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58, modelling, vaccination",

author = "Petry, {Karl Ulrich} and Kaatje Bollaerts and Paolo Bonanni and Margaret Stanley and Rosybel Drury and Elmar Joura and Kjaer, {Susanne K.} and Meijer, {Chris J.L.M.} and Didier Riethmuller and Benoit Soubeyrand and {Van Damme}, Pierre and Xavier Bosch",

year = "2018",

doi = "10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125",

language = "English",

volume = "14",

pages = "1800--1806",

journal = "Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics",

issn = "2164-5515",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine

AU - Petry, Karl Ulrich

AU - Bollaerts, Kaatje

AU - Bonanni, Paolo

AU - Stanley, Margaret

AU - Drury, Rosybel

AU - Joura, Elmar

AU - Kjaer, Susanne K.

AU - Meijer, Chris J.L.M.

AU - Riethmuller, Didier

AU - Soubeyrand, Benoit

AU - Van Damme, Pierre

AU - Bosch, Xavier

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Background: The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. Objective: To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV naïve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. Methods: We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. Results: We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Conclusion: Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.

AB - Background: The nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccine is indicated for active immunisation of individuals from the age of 9 years against cervical, vulvar, vaginal and anal premalignant lesions and cancers causally related to vaccine HPV high risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58, and to the HPV low risk types 6 and 11, causing genital warts. Objective: To estimate the lifetime risk (up to the age of 75 years) for developing cervical cancer after vaccinating a HPV naïve girl (e.g. 9 to 12 years old) with the 9vHPV vaccine in the hypothetical absence of cervical cancer screening. Methods: We built Monte Carlo simulation models using historical pre-screening age-specific cancer incidence data and current mortality data from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the UK. Estimates of genotype contribution fractions and vaccine efficacy were used to estimate the residual lifetime risk after vaccination assuming lifelong protection. Results: We estimated that, in the hypothetical absence of cervical screening and assuming lifelong protection, 9vHPV vaccination reduced the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks 7-fold with a residual lifetime cancer risks ranging from 1/572 (UK) to 1/238 (Denmark) and mortality risks ranging from 1/1488 (UK) to 1/851 (Denmark). After decades of repetitive cervical screenings, the lifetime cervical cancer and mortality risks was reduced between 2- and 4-fold depending on the country. Conclusion: Our simulations demonstrate how evidence can be generated to support decision-making by individual healthcare seekers regarding cervical cancer prevention.

KW - cervical cancer

KW - Human papillomavirus

KW - human papillomavirus recombinant vaccine nonavalent

KW - Types 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, 58, modelling

KW - vaccination

U2 - 10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125

DO - 10.1080/21645515.2018.1450125

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 29553886

AN - SCOPUS:85047407740

SN - 2164-5515

VL - 14

SP - 1800

EP - 1806

JO - Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics

JF - Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics

IS - 7

ER -

Estimation of the individual residual risk of cervical cancer after vaccination with the nonavalent HPV vaccine

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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