Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

Raymond W. Arritt; Christopher J. Anderson; Eugene S. Takle; Zaitao Pan; William J. Gutowski; Francis O. Otieno; Renato Da Silva; Daniel Caya; Jens H. Christensen; Daniel Lüthi; Miguel A. Gaertner; Clemente Gallardo; Song You Hong; Colin Jones; H. M.H. Juang; J. J. Katzfey; William M. Lapenta; René Laprise; Jay W. Larson; Glen E. Liston; John L. McGregor; Roger A. Pielke; John O. Roads; John A. Taylor

Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

Raymond W. Arritt^*, Christopher J. Anderson, Eugene S. Takle, Zaitao Pan, William J. Gutowski, Francis O. Otieno, Renato Da Silva, Daniel Caya, Jens H. Christensen, Daniel Lüthi, Miguel A. Gaertner, Clemente Gallardo, Song You Hong, Colin Jones, H. M.H. Juang, J. J. Katzfey, William M. Lapenta, René Laprise, Jay W. Larson, Glen E. ListonJohn L. McGregor, Roger A. Pielke, John O. Roads, John A. Taylor

^*Corresponding author for this work

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.

Original language	English
Journal	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Pages (from-to)	2347-2350
Number of pages	4
ISSN	0003-0007
Publication status	Published - 1 Jun 2004

Cite this

Arritt, R. W., Anderson, C. J., Takle, E. S., Pan, Z., Gutowski, W. J., Otieno, F. O., Da Silva, R., Caya, D., Christensen, J. H., Lüthi, D., Gaertner, M. A., Gallardo, C., Hong, S. Y., Jones, C., Juang, H. M. H., Katzfey, J. J., Lapenta, W. M., Laprise, R., Larson, J. W., ... Taylor, J. A. (2004). Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2347-2350.

Arritt, RW, Anderson, CJ, Takle, ES, Pan, Z, Gutowski, WJ, Otieno, FO, Da Silva, R, Caya, D, Christensen, JH, Lüthi, D, Gaertner, MA, Gallardo, C, Hong, SY, Jones, C, Juang, HMH, Katzfey, JJ, Lapenta, WM, Laprise, R, Larson, JW, Liston, GE, McGregor, JL, Pielke, RA, Roads, JO & Taylor, JA 2004, 'Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 2347-2350.

@article{ff80bbb2e4fa4f54bd762b50ce14a531,

title = "Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts",

abstract = "The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.",

author = "Arritt, {Raymond W.} and Anderson, {Christopher J.} and Takle, {Eugene S.} and Zaitao Pan and Gutowski, {William J.} and Otieno, {Francis O.} and {Da Silva}, Renato and Daniel Caya and Christensen, {Jens H.} and Daniel L{\"u}thi and Gaertner, {Miguel A.} and Clemente Gallardo and Hong, {Song You} and Colin Jones and Juang, {H. M.H.} and Katzfey, {J. J.} and Lapenta, {William M.} and Ren{\'e} Laprise and Larson, {Jay W.} and Liston, {Glen E.} and McGregor, {John L.} and Pielke, {Roger A.} and Roads, {John O.} and Taylor, {John A.}",

year = "2004",

month = jun,

day = "1",

language = "English",

pages = "2347--2350",

journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",

issn = "0003-0007",

publisher = "American Meteorological Society",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

AU - Arritt, Raymond W.

AU - Anderson, Christopher J.

AU - Takle, Eugene S.

AU - Pan, Zaitao

AU - Gutowski, William J.

AU - Otieno, Francis O.

AU - Da Silva, Renato

AU - Caya, Daniel

AU - Christensen, Jens H.

AU - Lüthi, Daniel

AU - Gaertner, Miguel A.

AU - Gallardo, Clemente

AU - Hong, Song You

AU - Jones, Colin

AU - Juang, H. M.H.

AU - Katzfey, J. J.

AU - Lapenta, William M.

AU - Laprise, René

AU - Larson, Jay W.

AU - Liston, Glen E.

AU - McGregor, John L.

AU - Pielke, Roger A.

AU - Roads, John O.

AU - Taylor, John A.

PY - 2004/6/1

Y1 - 2004/6/1

N2 - The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.

AB - The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=2442417581&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:2442417581

SN - 0003-0007

SP - 2347

EP - 2350

JO - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

ER -

Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts

Abstract

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this