Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

Ida Bjørnholt Karlsson; Torben Obel Sonnenborg; Lauren Paige Seaby; Karsten Høgh Jensen; Jens Christian Refsgaard

doi:10.3354/cr01265

Effect of a high-end CO₂-emission scenario on hydrology

Ida Bjørnholt Karlsson, Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Lauren Paige Seaby, Karsten Høgh Jensen, Jens Christian Refsgaard

Geology

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071-2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface-subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects.

Original language	English
Journal	Climate Research
Volume	64
Issue number	1
Pages (from-to)	39-54
ISSN	0936-577X
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01265
Publication status	Published - 2015

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.3354/cr01265

c064p039.pdfFinal published version, 1.68 MB

Cite this

@article{106e3a061b634c66abef2ce3177deda0,

title = "Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology",

abstract = "In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071-2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface-subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects.",

author = "Karlsson, {Ida Bj{\o}rnholt} and Sonnenborg, {Torben Obel} and Seaby, {Lauren Paige} and Jensen, {Karsten H{\o}gh} and Refsgaard, {Jens Christian}",

year = "2015",

doi = "10.3354/cr01265",

language = "English",

volume = "64",

pages = "39--54",

journal = "Climate Research",

issn = "0936-577X",

publisher = "Inter-Research",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

AU - Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt

AU - Sonnenborg, Torben Obel

AU - Seaby, Lauren Paige

AU - Jensen, Karsten Høgh

AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071-2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface-subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects.

AB - In the latest IPCC report, worst case scenarios of climate change describe average global surface warming of up to 6°C from pre-industrial times by the year 2100. This study highlights the influence of a high-end 6 degree climate change on the hydrology of a catchment in central Denmark. A simulation from the global climate model, EC-Earth, is downscaled using the regional climate model HIRHAM5. A simple bias correction is applied for daily reference evapotranspiration and temperature, while distribution-based scaling is used for daily precipitation data. Both the 6 degree emission scenario and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071-2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface-subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics and evapotranspiration show increasing drying-out tendencies for the future, most pronounced in the 6 degree scenario. Stream discharge and groundwater levels also show increased drying due to higher evapotranspiration. By comparing the 6 degree scenario with other emission scenarios, it is found that the most prominent changes in the water balance are caused by drying out of soils rather than precipitation effects.

U2 - 10.3354/cr01265

DO - 10.3354/cr01265

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0936-577X

VL - 64

SP - 39

EP - 54

JO - Climate Research

JF - Climate Research

IS - 1

ER -