Abstract
The objective was to use a Dynamic Generalized Linear Model (DGLM) based on abinomial distribution with a linear trend, for monitoring the PRRS (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome sero-prevalence in Danish swine herds. The DGLM was described and its performance for monitoring control and eradication programmes based on changes in PRRS sero-prevalence was explored. Results showed a declining trend in PRRS sero-prevalence between 2007 and 2014 suggesting that Danish herds are slowly eradicating PRRS. The simulation study demonstrated the flexibility of DGLMs in adapting to changes intrends in sero-prevalence. Based on this, it was possible to detect variations in the growth model component. This study is a proof-of-concept, demonstrating the use of DGLMs for monitoring endemic diseases. In addition, the principles stated might be useful in general research on monitoring and surveillance of endemic and (re-)emerging diseases.
| Original language | English |
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| Publication date | Mar 2016 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2016 |
| Event | Annual Meeting of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine - 2016 - Duration: 16 Mar 2016 → 18 Mar 2017 |
Conference
| Conference | Annual Meeting of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine - 2016 |
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| Period | 16/03/2016 → 18/03/2017 |