Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

F. Ewert; R.P. Rötter; M. Bindi; H. Webber; M. Trnka; K. C. Kersebaum; J.E. Olesen; M. K. van Ittersum; S. Janssen; M. Rivington; M. A. Semenov; D. Wallach; John Roy Porter; D. Stewart; J. Verhagen; T. Gaiser; T. Palosuo; F. Tao; C. Nendel; P. P. Roggero; L. Bartosová; S. Asseng

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

F. Ewert^*, R.P. Rötter, M. Bindi, H. Webber, M. Trnka, K. C. Kersebaum, J.E. Olesen, M. K. van Ittersum, S. Janssen, M. Rivington, M. A. Semenov, D. Wallach, John Roy Porter, D. Stewart, J. Verhagen, T. Gaiser, T. Palosuo, F. Tao, C. Nendel, P. P. RoggeroL. Bartosová, S. Asseng

^*Corresponding author for this work

Section for Crop Sciences

150 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.

Original language	English
Journal	Environmental Modelling & Software
Volume	72
Pages (from-to)	287-303
Number of pages	17
ISSN	1364-8152
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003
Publication status	Published - 7 Feb 2015

Keywords

Adaptation
Crop models
Integrated assessment
Risk assessment
Scaling
Uncertainty

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

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Ewert, F., Rötter, R. P., Bindi, M., Webber, H., Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., van Ittersum, M. K., Janssen, S., Rivington, M., Semenov, M. A., Wallach, D., Porter, J. R., Stewart, D., Verhagen, J., Gaiser, T., Palosuo, T., Tao, F., Nendel, C., ... Asseng, S. (2015). Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 72, 287-303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

Ewert, F, Rötter, RP, Bindi, M, Webber, H, Trnka, M, Kersebaum, KC, Olesen, JE, van Ittersum, MK, Janssen, S, Rivington, M, Semenov, MA, Wallach, D, Porter, JR, Stewart, D, Verhagen, J, Gaiser, T, Palosuo, T, Tao, F, Nendel, C, Roggero, PP, Bartosová, L & Asseng, S 2015, 'Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change', Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 72, pp. 287-303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

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title = "Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change",

abstract = "The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.",

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author = "F. Ewert and R.P. R{\"o}tter and M. Bindi and H. Webber and M. Trnka and Kersebaum, {K. C.} and J.E. Olesen and {van Ittersum}, {M. K.} and S. Janssen and M. Rivington and Semenov, {M. A.} and D. Wallach and Porter, {John Roy} and D. Stewart and J. Verhagen and T. Gaiser and T. Palosuo and F. Tao and C. Nendel and Roggero, {P. P.} and L. Bartosov{\'a} and S. Asseng",

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AU - Ewert, F.

AU - Rötter, R.P.

AU - Bindi, M.

AU - Webber, H.

AU - Trnka, M.

AU - Kersebaum, K. C.

AU - Olesen, J.E.

AU - van Ittersum, M. K.

AU - Janssen, S.

AU - Rivington, M.

AU - Semenov, M. A.

AU - Wallach, D.

AU - Porter, John Roy

AU - Stewart, D.

AU - Verhagen, J.

AU - Gaiser, T.

AU - Palosuo, T.

AU - Tao, F.

AU - Nendel, C.

AU - Roggero, P. P.

AU - Bartosová, L.

AU - Asseng, S.

PY - 2015/2/7

Y1 - 2015/2/7

N2 - The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.

AB - The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches.

KW - Adaptation

KW - Crop models

KW - Integrated assessment

KW - Risk assessment

KW - Scaling

KW - Uncertainty

U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

M3 - Journal article

SN - 1364-8152

VL - 72

SP - 287

EP - 303

JO - Environmental Modelling & Software

JF - Environmental Modelling & Software

ER -

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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