Choice of the Ångström-Prescott coefficients: are time-dependent ones better than fixed ones in modelling globat solar irradiance?

TY - JOUR

T1 - Choice of the Ångström-Prescott coefficients

T2 - are time-dependent ones better than fixed ones in modelling globat solar irradiance?

AU - Liu, Xiaoying

AU - Mei, Xurong

AU - Li, Yuzhong

AU - Porter, John Roy

AU - Wang, Qingsuo

AU - Zhang, Yanqing

PY - 2010/12

Y1 - 2010/12

N2 - The ngström-Prescott (A-P) model is one of the most accurate and widely used empirical methods to estimate global solar irradiance (Rs). In order to use this highly rated model, the first step is to choose its coefficients from literature or to calibrate them in a new locality. This seemingly simple matter can be confusing and difficult due to their large variability and many different calibration approaches. This paper addressed the role of time-dependent nature of these coefficients by comparing the Rs predictions of the simultaneously calibrated monthly, seasonal, bi-annual and annual (fixed) coefficients using data from 20 sites of temperate climate in China. When evaluated by performance indicators of RMSE, RRMSE, MBE, R2 and values of t-statistic, it is demonstrated that time-dependent A-P coefficients are not better than fixed ones in Rs prediction. This indicates that consideration of the time-dependent characteristics of these coefficients has little predictive value and thus unnecessary. The phenomenon can be interpreted by the concept of equifinality and the linearity inherent in the relationship of n/N vs. Rs/Ra. The implication of this study is that it gives more confidence in predictive accuracy of fixed coefficients and contributes to reducing unnecessary complexity of this model and thus easing their choice, calibration and application.

AB - The ngström-Prescott (A-P) model is one of the most accurate and widely used empirical methods to estimate global solar irradiance (Rs). In order to use this highly rated model, the first step is to choose its coefficients from literature or to calibrate them in a new locality. This seemingly simple matter can be confusing and difficult due to their large variability and many different calibration approaches. This paper addressed the role of time-dependent nature of these coefficients by comparing the Rs predictions of the simultaneously calibrated monthly, seasonal, bi-annual and annual (fixed) coefficients using data from 20 sites of temperate climate in China. When evaluated by performance indicators of RMSE, RRMSE, MBE, R2 and values of t-statistic, it is demonstrated that time-dependent A-P coefficients are not better than fixed ones in Rs prediction. This indicates that consideration of the time-dependent characteristics of these coefficients has little predictive value and thus unnecessary. The phenomenon can be interpreted by the concept of equifinality and the linearity inherent in the relationship of n/N vs. Rs/Ra. The implication of this study is that it gives more confidence in predictive accuracy of fixed coefficients and contributes to reducing unnecessary complexity of this model and thus easing their choice, calibration and application.

KW - Former LIFE faculty

KW - Ångström-Prescott coefficients

KW - Time-dependent

KW - Fixed

KW - Global Solar irradiance

U2 - 10.1016/j.enconman.2010.05.020

DO - 10.1016/j.enconman.2010.05.020

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0196-8904

VL - 51

SP - 2565

EP - 2574

JO - Energy Conversion and Management

JF - Energy Conversion and Management

IS - 12

ER -