Challenges for land systems science

Mark D.A. Rounsevell; Bas Pedroli; Karl-Heinz Erb; Marc Gramberger; Anne Gravsholt Busck; Helmut Haberl; Søren Bech Pilgaard Kristensen; Tobias Kuemmerle; Sandra Lavorel; Marcus Lindner; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Marc J. Metzger; David Murray-Rust; Alexander Popp; Marta Pérez-Soba; Anette Reenberg; Angheluta Vadineanu; Peter H. Verburg; Bernhard Wolfslehner

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007

Challenges for land systems science

Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Bas Pedroli, Karl-Heinz Erb, Marc Gramberger, Anne Gravsholt Busck, Helmut Haberl, Søren Bech Pilgaard Kristensen, Tobias Kuemmerle, Sandra Lavorel, Marcus Lindner, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Marc J. Metzger, David Murray-Rust, Alexander Popp, Marta Pérez-Soba, Anette Reenberg, Angheluta Vadineanu, Peter H. Verburg, Bernhard Wolfslehner

Geology

241 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.

Original language	English
Journal	Land Use Policy
Volume	29
Issue number	4
Pages (from-to)	899-910
Number of pages	12
ISSN	0264-8377
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007
Publication status	Published - Oct 2012

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Rounsevell, M. D. A., Pedroli, B., Erb, K.-H., Gramberger, M., Busck, A. G., Haberl, H., Kristensen, S. B. P., Kuemmerle, T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Metzger, M. J., Murray-Rust, D., Popp, A., Pérez-Soba, M., Reenberg, A., Vadineanu, A., Verburg, P. H., & Wolfslehner, B. (2012). Challenges for land systems science. Land Use Policy, 29(4), 899-910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007

Rounsevell, MDA, Pedroli, B, Erb, K-H, Gramberger, M, Busck, AG, Haberl, H, Kristensen, SBP, Kuemmerle, T, Lavorel, S, Lindner, M, Lotze-Campen, H, Metzger, MJ, Murray-Rust, D, Popp, A, Pérez-Soba, M, Reenberg, A, Vadineanu, A, Verburg, PH & Wolfslehner, B 2012, 'Challenges for land systems science', Land Use Policy, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 899-910. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007

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abstract = "While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.",

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AU - Haberl, Helmut

AU - Kristensen, Søren Bech Pilgaard

AU - Kuemmerle, Tobias

AU - Lavorel, Sandra

AU - Lindner, Marcus

AU - Lotze-Campen, Hermann

AU - Metzger, Marc J.

AU - Murray-Rust, David

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Pérez-Soba, Marta

AU - Reenberg, Anette

AU - Vadineanu, Angheluta

AU - Verburg, Peter H.

AU - Wolfslehner, Bernhard

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N2 - While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.

AB - While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.

U2 - 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007

DO - 10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.01.007

M3 - Journal article

SN - 0264-8377

VL - 29

SP - 899

EP - 910

JO - Land Use Policy

JF - Land Use Policy

IS - 4

ER -

Challenges for land systems science

Abstract

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