TY - JOUR
T1 - Can Linear Regression Modeling Help Clinicians in the Interpretation of Genotypic Resistance Data? An Application to Derive a Lopinavir-Score
AU - Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro
AU - Prosperi, Mattia C F
AU - Kjær, Jesper
AU - Dunn, David
AU - Paredes, Roger
AU - Sabin, Caroline A
AU - Lundgren, Jens D
AU - Phillips, Andrew N
AU - Pillay, Deenan
AU - for the EuroSIDA and the United Kingdom CHIC/United Kingdom HDRD Studies
PY - 2011/11/16
Y1 - 2011/11/16
N2 - BACKGROUND: The question of whether a score for a specific antiretroviral (e.g. lopinavir/r in this analysis) that improves prediction of viral load response given by existing expert-based interpretation systems (IS) could be derived from analyzing the correlation between genotypic data and virological response using statistical methods remains largely unanswered. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the data of the patients from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study for whom genotypic data were stored in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK HDRD) to construct a training/validation dataset of treatment change episodes (TCE). We used the average square error (ASE) on a 10-fold cross-validation and on a test dataset (the EuroSIDA TCE database) to compare the performance of a newly derived lopinavir/r score with that of the 3 most widely used expert-based interpretation rules (ANRS, HIVDB and Rega). Our analysis identified mutations V82A, I54V, K20I and I62V, which were associated with reduced viral response and mutations I15V and V91S which determined lopinavir/r hypersensitivity. All models performed equally well (ASE on test ranging between 1.1 and 1.3, p¿=¿0.34). CONCLUSIONS: We fully explored the potential of linear regression to construct a simple predictive model for lopinavir/r-based TCE. Although, the performance of our proposed score was similar to that of already existing IS, previously unrecognized lopinavir/r-associated mutations were identified. The analysis illustrates an approach of validation of expert-based IS that could be used in the future for other antiretrovirals and in other settings outside HIV research.
AB - BACKGROUND: The question of whether a score for a specific antiretroviral (e.g. lopinavir/r in this analysis) that improves prediction of viral load response given by existing expert-based interpretation systems (IS) could be derived from analyzing the correlation between genotypic data and virological response using statistical methods remains largely unanswered. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the data of the patients from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study for whom genotypic data were stored in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK HDRD) to construct a training/validation dataset of treatment change episodes (TCE). We used the average square error (ASE) on a 10-fold cross-validation and on a test dataset (the EuroSIDA TCE database) to compare the performance of a newly derived lopinavir/r score with that of the 3 most widely used expert-based interpretation rules (ANRS, HIVDB and Rega). Our analysis identified mutations V82A, I54V, K20I and I62V, which were associated with reduced viral response and mutations I15V and V91S which determined lopinavir/r hypersensitivity. All models performed equally well (ASE on test ranging between 1.1 and 1.3, p¿=¿0.34). CONCLUSIONS: We fully explored the potential of linear regression to construct a simple predictive model for lopinavir/r-based TCE. Although, the performance of our proposed score was similar to that of already existing IS, previously unrecognized lopinavir/r-associated mutations were identified. The analysis illustrates an approach of validation of expert-based IS that could be used in the future for other antiretrovirals and in other settings outside HIV research.
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0025665
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0025665
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 22110581
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 6
SP - e25665
JO - PLoS Computational Biology
JF - PLoS Computational Biology
IS - 11
ER -
